Post #2467
136
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for January-February (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
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Post #2466
180
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 31% YoY in January, vs. the +14% YoY in December, per government data. According to Rapaport, the growth was partially driven by the early arrival of the Chinese New Year in 2025, which weighed on January’s YoY comparison. Nevertheless, the retail sector maintained its positive trajectory, while the sustained growth of inbound visitors and the economic growth momentum will likely continue to underpin local consumption
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as geopolitical/trading concerns
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as geopolitical/trading concerns
Post #2465
150
Morning Bites
🏦 Global central bank gold purchases decelerated to net 5t in January, vs. the revised +33t net seen in December, but still marked the 32th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, per the World Gold Council's data
Specifically, the only notable purchase in January was made by Uzbekistan (+9t), which was offset by Russia's sale (also -9t), per WGC data. We remind readers that official central bank purchases currently represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
🏦 Global central bank gold purchases decelerated to net 5t in January, vs. the revised +33t net seen in December, but still marked the 32th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, per the World Gold Council's data
Specifically, the only notable purchase in January was made by Uzbekistan (+9t), which was offset by Russia's sale (also -9t), per WGC data. We remind readers that official central bank purchases currently represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks
#gold
Post #2464
153
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇶🇦 Qatalum expects to halt aluminium production by end-March 2026, per a company press-release. The controlled shutdown of the 0.65mnt smelter (~1% of global primary Al supply) started on March 3 amid the forthcoming suspension of gas supply. Management expects full restart to take 6-12 months, but the exact timing is unknown yet
On our numbers, the Gulf countries jointly accounted for ~9% of global Al supply in 2024, so continuous production disruptions, if materialise, might add further support to aluminium market fundamentals, along with strong consumption dynamics globally
#aluminium
🇶🇦 Qatalum expects to halt aluminium production by end-March 2026, per a company press-release. The controlled shutdown of the 0.65mnt smelter (~1% of global primary Al supply) started on March 3 amid the forthcoming suspension of gas supply. Management expects full restart to take 6-12 months, but the exact timing is unknown yet
On our numbers, the Gulf countries jointly accounted for ~9% of global Al supply in 2024, so continuous production disruptions, if materialise, might add further support to aluminium market fundamentals, along with strong consumption dynamics globally
#aluminium
Post #2463
118
Morning Bites (part 1)
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in February. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI printed 50.8 (vs. 49.5 in January), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI inched down to 52.4 (vs. 52.6 seen last month)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China declined to 49.0 (from 49.3 a month ago). However, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.1 (from 50.3 earlier)
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.9 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings in western economies remained above 50.0 - this could be a positive sign for local industrial metals demand, if the trend persists, we think. At the same time, Chinese PMIs show mixed dynamics, while India is the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
🌏 Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in February. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI printed 50.8 (vs. 49.5 in January), while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI inched down to 52.4 (vs. 52.6 seen last month)
🇨🇳 The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China declined to 49.0 (from 49.3 a month ago). However, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.1 (from 50.3 earlier)
🇮🇳 India’s manufacturing PMI of 56.9 remains one of the strongest indicators among the world's key economies
❗️Overall, manufacturing PMI readings in western economies remained above 50.0 - this could be a positive sign for local industrial metals demand, if the trend persists, we think. At the same time, Chinese PMIs show mixed dynamics, while India is the standout with continuously robust PMI figures
#PMIs
Post #2462
132
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-February was 2.03mnt, up 4.3% from the previous ten days, but 5.7% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production slid 6.2% YTD (through February-20). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 19.9% over the period, and were 8.3% higher YoY
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view
China accounts for >50% of global steel supply
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-February was 2.03mnt, up 4.3% from the previous ten days, but 5.7% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production slid 6.2% YTD (through February-20). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 19.9% over the period, and were 8.3% higher YoY
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view
China accounts for >50% of global steel supply
Post #2461
135
Morning Bites (part 2)
🪨 India plans to cut coal imports for its power sector by 30% in 2026, Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the plan. The Indian government is pushing utilities (which imported ~50mnt of coal in 2025) to rely more heavily on domestic supply and reduce imports by at least 15mnt this year. Overall, local authorities aim to replace 20-30% of imported coal with domestic supply at most power plants
In our view, the target looks overly ambitious, given the short implementation period. However, the initiative underpins our longer-term cautious view on thermal coal
India accounted for ~15% of global thermal coal imports in 2025
#coal
🪨 India plans to cut coal imports for its power sector by 30% in 2026, Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the plan. The Indian government is pushing utilities (which imported ~50mnt of coal in 2025) to rely more heavily on domestic supply and reduce imports by at least 15mnt this year. Overall, local authorities aim to replace 20-30% of imported coal with domestic supply at most power plants
In our view, the target looks overly ambitious, given the short implementation period. However, the initiative underpins our longer-term cautious view on thermal coal
India accounted for ~15% of global thermal coal imports in 2025
#coal
Post #2460
130
Morning Bites (part 1)
🥉Global mined copper production fell 2.1% YoY in December, vs. the revised decline of 3.2% YoY in November, the International Copper Study Group reports. In 2025, however, the figure was up 0.7% YoY, due to the strong 1H25 dynamics before the series accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics remained upbeat, up 3.0% YoY in 2025, mainly driven by China (+4.0% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production fell 2.1% YoY in December, vs. the revised decline of 3.2% YoY in November, the International Copper Study Group reports. In 2025, however, the figure was up 0.7% YoY, due to the strong 1H25 dynamics before the series accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics remained upbeat, up 3.0% YoY in 2025, mainly driven by China (+4.0% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Post #2459
137
Week ahead data releases in M&M
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several M&M names are still due to release their 4Q25/2H25 financials. Of the major companies reporting this week, our expectations of Fresnillo's and Ero Copper’s performance are more conservative than the Street's
#reporting_season
The reporting season is drawing to a close, but several M&M names are still due to release their 4Q25/2H25 financials. Of the major companies reporting this week, our expectations of Fresnillo's and Ero Copper’s performance are more conservative than the Street's
#reporting_season
Post #2458
145
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗Global crude steel output declined 7% YoY in January to 147mnt, after the 4% drop YoY in December, World Steel Association (WSA) data show. China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 14% YoY, while world ex-China output rose 3% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, the WSA data show that Russian and EU output dropped 7% and 2% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 3% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 11% YoY (also up 10% YoY in 2025)
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. A new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output declined 7% YoY in January to 147mnt, after the 4% drop YoY in December, World Steel Association (WSA) data show. China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 14% YoY, while world ex-China output rose 3% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, the WSA data show that Russian and EU output dropped 7% and 2% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 3% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 11% YoY (also up 10% YoY in 2025)
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. A new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
Post #2457
121
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎 De Beers has raised prices for large (>5ct) rough diamonds at its February sight, responding to tight supply in the segment, Rapaport reports. The exact scale of the price change remains unknown
To recap, in 2025, there was a noticeable difference in the performance of large and small polished diamonds. The RAPI price index declined 26% and 10% YoY for 0.5ct and 1.0ct stones, respectively, while the 3.0ct index inched up 0.3%. Such difference might reflect weaker purchasing power in low categories, pressure from LGDs in low-end of bridal category and high gold prices (+44% YoY in 2025), which incentives retailers to put lower value stones in low-end jewellery. All these factors are irrelevant for high-end luxury goods
We maintain a cautious view on the global diamond market and believe that supply discipline will not start to recover until Anglo American completes the planned sale (or spin-off) of De Beers, which accounts for ~30% of global rough diamonds mined supply
#diamonds
💎 De Beers has raised prices for large (>5ct) rough diamonds at its February sight, responding to tight supply in the segment, Rapaport reports. The exact scale of the price change remains unknown
To recap, in 2025, there was a noticeable difference in the performance of large and small polished diamonds. The RAPI price index declined 26% and 10% YoY for 0.5ct and 1.0ct stones, respectively, while the 3.0ct index inched up 0.3%. Such difference might reflect weaker purchasing power in low categories, pressure from LGDs in low-end of bridal category and high gold prices (+44% YoY in 2025), which incentives retailers to put lower value stones in low-end jewellery. All these factors are irrelevant for high-end luxury goods
We maintain a cautious view on the global diamond market and believe that supply discipline will not start to recover until Anglo American completes the planned sale (or spin-off) of De Beers, which accounts for ~30% of global rough diamonds mined supply
#diamonds
Post #2456
123
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-February was 1.95mnt, up 0.6% from the previous ten days, but 8.8% lower YoY. According to CISA data, local production slid 6.3% YTD (through February-10). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 2.7% over the period, but were 6.8% lower YoY
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view
China accounts for >50% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-February was 1.95mnt, up 0.6% from the previous ten days, but 8.8% lower YoY. According to CISA data, local production slid 6.3% YTD (through February-10). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 2.7% over the period, but were 6.8% lower YoY
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view
China accounts for >50% of global steel supply
#steel
Post #2455
124
Morning Bites
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations fell 3% YoY in January, vs. the 6% YoY gain in December, per the ACEA data. The overall figure was still 21% lower than the pre-Covid level (January 2019). Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales fell 7% YoY, which was partially offset by the strong BEV registrations (+20% YoY) last month
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations fell 3% YoY in January, vs. the 6% YoY gain in December, per the ACEA data. The overall figure was still 21% lower than the pre-Covid level (January 2019). Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales fell 7% YoY, which was partially offset by the strong BEV registrations (+20% YoY) last month
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
#cars
Post #2453
139
Morning Bites
🏭Global primary aluminium output was up 1.3% YoY in January, after the 0.5% YoY gain in December, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 1.5% YoY last month. We note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI data); in January, annualized output was 44.6mnt
Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to provide further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD ~3,100/t in 2026F
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output was up 1.3% YoY in January, after the 0.5% YoY gain in December, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 1.5% YoY last month. We note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI data); in January, annualized output was 44.6mnt
Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to provide further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD ~3,100/t in 2026F
#aluminium
Post #2452
124
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to publish their 4Q25/2H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are almost in line with the consensus on their performance, although we are less upbeat on diamond miners’ (Lucara and Petra) EBITDA
We also await EU car registrations numbers and global steel production data to be published this week
#reporting_season
As the reporting season continues, several M&M companies are scheduled to publish their 4Q25/2H25 financials this week. Among the major names, we are almost in line with the consensus on their performance, although we are less upbeat on diamond miners’ (Lucara and Petra) EBITDA
We also await EU car registrations numbers and global steel production data to be published this week
#reporting_season
Post #2450
184
Morning Bites
📉China’s output of aluminium products was flat YoY in December, at 6.1mnt, as it was in November. In 2025, output declined 2% YoY. Nevertheless, it is our view that the rapid expansion of the electricity grid and the new energy sector in China (which accounts for ~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among the key factors driving aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products declined 2% YoY in December to 2.2mnt, vs. the 4% gain YoY in November. FY25 production rose 9% YoY. We reiterate our view that large scale grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies are likely to add further support to the red metal’s fundamentals. China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
📉China’s output of aluminium products was flat YoY in December, at 6.1mnt, as it was in November. In 2025, output declined 2% YoY. Nevertheless, it is our view that the rapid expansion of the electricity grid and the new energy sector in China (which accounts for ~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among the key factors driving aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products declined 2% YoY in December to 2.2mnt, vs. the 4% gain YoY in November. FY25 production rose 9% YoY. We reiterate our view that large scale grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies are likely to add further support to the red metal’s fundamentals. China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
Post #2449
165
Morning Bites
💎Angola has reiterated its plan to increase annual diamond output to 17.5mnct by 2027, after the record high 14.0mnct it produced in 2025, IDEX reports, citing a representative of Endiama, the state-owned miner. The growth mainly reflects the ramp-up of the Luele mine, which, together with Catoca, account for more than 90% of Angola’s rough diamond supply
Thus Angola maintained its previously announced production guidance, despite the ongoing crisis on the global diamond market. Angola’s diamond revenue was up 21% YoY in 2025, but its average realised price dropped 29% YoY as the country opted to sell stockpiles rather than wait for a market recovery
We maintain our cautious view on the global diamond market, as supply discipline is unlikely to improve while Anglo American proceeds with the planned spinoff or sale of De Beers (~30% of global rough diamond supply). Angola's actions might further delay the recovery in rough prices, we believe
#diamonds
💎Angola has reiterated its plan to increase annual diamond output to 17.5mnct by 2027, after the record high 14.0mnct it produced in 2025, IDEX reports, citing a representative of Endiama, the state-owned miner. The growth mainly reflects the ramp-up of the Luele mine, which, together with Catoca, account for more than 90% of Angola’s rough diamond supply
Thus Angola maintained its previously announced production guidance, despite the ongoing crisis on the global diamond market. Angola’s diamond revenue was up 21% YoY in 2025, but its average realised price dropped 29% YoY as the country opted to sell stockpiles rather than wait for a market recovery
We maintain our cautious view on the global diamond market, as supply discipline is unlikely to improve while Anglo American proceeds with the planned spinoff or sale of De Beers (~30% of global rough diamond supply). Angola's actions might further delay the recovery in rough prices, we believe
#diamonds
Post #2447
148
Morning Bites
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output fell 3% YoY in December, vs. the 11% YoY decline in November. Overall, in 2025 local production inched up 1% YoY to 2.78mnt, which was broadly in line with the expectations of SNMPE, Peru's leading mining association (~2.80mnt in 2025 vs. 2.74mnt seen in 2024)
The joint production of Chile and Peru (>35% of global Cu supply) was down 4% YoY in December and down 1% YoY in 2025
#copper
🇵🇪 Peru’s copper output fell 3% YoY in December, vs. the 11% YoY decline in November. Overall, in 2025 local production inched up 1% YoY to 2.78mnt, which was broadly in line with the expectations of SNMPE, Peru's leading mining association (~2.80mnt in 2025 vs. 2.74mnt seen in 2024)
The joint production of Chile and Peru (>35% of global Cu supply) was down 4% YoY in December and down 1% YoY in 2025
#copper