Morning Bites

⛏️ Ivanhoe has again suspended underground activities at its Kakula mine in the DRC due to seismic activity, according to a company press-release. Following the previous suspension of underground operations announced on May 20, management now expects the seismic activity to continue for weeks. Furthermore, Ivanhoe notes increased water inflows into the mine, so the company's 2025 production and cost guidance has been withdrawn pending review

Given Kakula is one of the ten largest copper mines in the world, with 2024 production of 380kt (~1.5% of global Cu output), the protracted supply disruption, if it materialised, might additionally widen the market deficit in 2025. In our view, this is a supportive factor for the Cu price, which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t by late 2025 or early 2026

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