Morning Bites

🏭Global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% YoY in August, after the revised drop of 1.6% YoY in July, according to the IAI data. China's supply (63% of global Al output) grew 2.9% YoY last month. Although local Al output of 45.6mnt, annualised, in 8mo26 technically exceeded the cap of 45.0mnt/year (amid utilisation of previously unused quotas, etc), we do not expect the additional volumes to surpass 1.0mnt

Meanwhile, the output of Gulf nations (9% of global Al supply in 2025) shrank 42.6% YoY in August, amid the US-Iran conflict. Specifically, ~60% of the region's Al operations have been affected to various extents since late February (e.g. UAE’s EMAL, Bahrain’s Alba and Qatar’s Qatalum). Hence, we anticipate sluggish production dynamics in the region until at least the end of 2026

We maintain our view that strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), combined with concerns over global supply, are likely to provide support for Al prices, which we forecast will average USD ~3,400/t in 2026F

#aluminium