Morning Bites

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-February was 1.95mnt, up 0.6% from the previous ten days, but 8.8% lower YoY. According to CISA data, local production slid 6.3% YTD (through February-10). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 2.7% over the period, but were 6.8% lower YoY

To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view

China accounts for >50% of global steel supply

#steel