Morning Bites (part 2)

🔗Global crude steel output declined 7% YoY in January to 147mnt, after the 4% drop YoY in December, World Steel Association (WSA) data show. China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 14% YoY, while world ex-China output rose 3% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, the WSA data show that Russian and EU output dropped 7% and 2% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 3% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 11% YoY (also up 10% YoY in 2025)

To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. A new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026

#steel