Morning Bites

🔗Global crude steel output declined 4% YoY in December to 140mnt, after the 5% drop YoY in November, per World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (49% of global crude steel supply) decreased 10% YoY (down 4% YoY in 2025), while world ex-China output rose 4% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, the WSA data show that Russian dropped 4% YoY, while EU production gained 4% YoY last month. Meanwhile, US production also increased 4% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 10% YoY (also up 10% YoY in 2025)

To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. A new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026

#steel