Morning Bites

🔗Global crude steel output declined 5% YoY in November to 140mnt, after the 6% drop YoY in October, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 11% YoY (down 4% YoY in 11mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, the WSA data show that Russian and EU supply dropped 7% YoY and 4% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) also gained 11% YoY (up 10% YoY in 11mo25)

To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. A new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026

#steel