Morning Bites

🔗Global crude steel output declined 6% YoY in October to 143mnt, vs. the 2% drop YoY in September, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 12% YoY (being down 4% YoY in 10mo25), while world ex-China output rose 1% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, WSA data show that Russian and EU supply dropped 6% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) also gained 6% YoY, being up 10% YoY on 10mo25 basis

To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026

#steel