Morning Bites

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-February was 2.03mnt, up 4.3% from the previous ten days, but 5.7% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production slid 6.2% YTD (through February-20). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 19.9% over the period, and were 8.3% higher YoY

To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view

China accounts for >50% of global steel supply