Morning Bites

🏭Global primary aluminium output was up 1.3% YoY in January, after the 0.5% YoY gain in December, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 1.5% YoY last month. We note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI data); in January, annualized output was 44.6mnt

Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to provide further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD ~3,100/t in 2026F

#aluminium