Morning Bites (part 1)
 
💎Global rough diamond supply fell 3% YoY to 108mnct* in 2024, after a 8% decline YoY in 2023, per Kimberley Process data. Specifically, Botswana's output (* - adjusted to De Beers data) was down 27% YoY, while production in Russia was flat YoY at 37.3mnct

Following the supply contraction in 2024, diamond exports (from the 12 key producing countries) declined 7% YoY (vs. -8% YoY in 2023). However, according to industry reports, in early-2025 De Beers sold its rough stones at discounts to selected traders, indicating a possible breakdown in the price-over-volume strategy

We maintain our view that it might take longer than we had anticipated for the global diamond market to recover, given still high midstream inventories and the risks to supply discipline in 2025. Meanwhile, further de-escalation of the US-China trade war (jointly, they account for ~65% of the world polished demand) might become a favorable factor for consumer confidence

#diamonds