Morning Bites (part 1)

🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 1.2% YoY in September, vs. the revised +1.1% YoY in August, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 1.2% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to add further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F

We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 9mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)

#aluminium