Morning Bites

🏭Global primary aluminium output increased 1.2% YoY in August, vs. the revised increase of 1.0% YoY in July, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) increased 1.3% YoY last month, while ex. China output was up only 0.9% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China are likely to add further support to Al, which we forecast to reach USD 3,000/t in 2026

We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 44.1mnt in 8mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)

#aluminium