QCP Broadcast

QCP Market Colour, 28 September 2026

Global markets opened Monday under multi-asset pressure as investors reduced risk exposure across all liquid asset classes. The Nasdaq-100 fell from 744.45 to 737.76 in premarket, gold declined from $4,260 to $4,147, and Bitcoin dropped from $84,500 to $82,800—simultaneously. The US Dollar Index also traded lower, defying typical flight-to-safety flows. This pattern reflects broad-based deleveraging rather than safe-haven repositioning.

The primary driver was geopolitical: the US rejected proposed ceasefire conditions for the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, reigniting concerns about potential prolonged energy supply disruption and triggering sharp increases in Brent crude prices. Elevated energy costs carry direct implications for consumer purchasing power during this economically sensitive period.

This week carries a heavily concentrated US macroeconomic calendar. The PCE price index and Nonfarm Payrolls report are critical releases following recent Fed rate increases. Markets remain hypersensitive to data that could inform expectations on additional monetary policy adjustments. In crypto options, front-end implied volatilities remain elevated as dealers price downside protection. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows show hesitation amid the broader liquidation. Bitcoin's recent technical strength faces pressure from the convergence of geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic data risk. Critical support levels are in focus.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Themes - 10 September 2026

Fed's September hike locked in the hiking cycle. Six of seven voting speakers hawkish; Kashkari, Musalem, Goolsbee all emphasize inflation is broad and demand-side pressure is real. Policy rate now 3.75%-4.00%. Hike camp firm; restrictive bias confirmed.

BOJ followed suit with rate hike from 1.00%, next hike priced for Q4. JPY flips to net long in leveraged funds; GBP longs unwinding. Dollar support reduced as central banks tighten in unison.

Hormuz tanker crossings at zero versus 29-vessel average. Geopolitical tension spiked then collapsed; Trump signalled openness to Iran talks. Brent pulled back to ~$101/bbl. Hormuz remains a chokepoint with Bab El Mandeb also at multi-decade lows.

Credit repricing sharply: Oracle CDS above 100bps. BTC ETF flows near 99th percentile, Q4 seasonality bid. Strategy resumed accumulation (950 BTC for $75.7m). SEC approved tokenized stock exemption; Clarity Act stalled.

With Fed and BOJ hiking lockstep, is macro regime fully tightened?

QCP Market Colour, 21 September 2026

Bitcoin is arming up for a breakout. It closed the week above its 50-week moving average, up 29% over the past 35 days, with the tide turning as the traditional war trade loses its grip despite continued U.S.-Iran tensions.

The legislative backdrop is doing some of the work. The American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) has cleared the House Financial Services Committee, one step from a full House vote, and would establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve if passed. Timing is now the variable: prediction markets price roughly a 90% chance of Democrats taking the House in the midterms, and with this Congress ending on 2 January 2027, a floor vote before then would materially improve ARMA's near-term path.

The options tape is loaded. Front-end vols remain elevated into a seasonally strong month, and around 43% of BTC open interest sits in Friday's quarterly expiry, with the 85k/90k/95k/100k strikes from August's large 25SEP26 Call Condor among the biggest concentrations. A break of the 83k resistance level could open the door toward 90k and bring those strikes into play.

The driver is shifting from the war trade to dollar liquidity and risk appetite, with front-end funding conditions mattering more for crypto. It's showing up in flows: spot ETFs have flipped from outflows back into inflows, with more than $590m of net inflows across Thursday and Friday alone.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Market Colour, 18 September 2026

Bitcoin took two direct hits inside 48 hours and came out bid. The CLARITY Act's 49–50 cloture failure on Tuesday pushed BTC to a monthly low near $75,900, the Fed hiked the following afternoon, and spot recovered to $77,000 before settling around $76,500.

The flows are the more interesting part. Spot ETFs bled $450m on the 15th and $296m on the 16th, IBIT shedding $144m of it. Then on the 17th the tape turned: $159m of net inflows with IBIT taking $184m. The outflows bottomed on the hike itself, and the day after it the largest fund was a buyer.

The Fed's 25bp was priced above 90%, so Warsh was the story. Inflation remains "too high", conditions are not "restrictive", and he framed the move as "removing a dose of policy accommodation" before declining to give any forward guidance. The committee also raised its longer-run neutral estimate to 3.25% from 3.06%, which matters more for ten-year fair value than the near-term path. Yields bear-flattened Wednesday then fell across the curve Thursday, the long end rallying on the resolve. A hike today may mean fewer hikes tomorrow.

Crude retreated three sessions on Saudi restart guidance, though independent analysts see weeks rather than days and WTI is still up 18% on the month. This is a risk premium unwinding, not supply returning. The BOJ hiked to 1.25% and the yen weakened anyway. And the SEC used exemptive authority to clear the path for tokenized securities venues, five years of relief in place of the legislation Congress could not pass.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Market Colour, 14 September 2026

August CPI showed 0.4% headline month-on-month and 0.3% core month-on-month, above the 0.2% consensus. Bitcoin fell to $76,700 on the release before recovering to $77,600, suggesting markets have largely absorbed the 25 basis point hike scenario. The real question is how the Fed frames the move and what it signals about future tightening.

Institutional flows diverged: Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows over the holiday week, though Friday's redemptions slowed significantly. Ethereum ETFs attracted inflows including $216.4 million Friday, pointing to selective demand despite softer conditions. Volatility remains subdued with the curve upward-sloping and positioning hedged ahead of the decision.

This week's FOMC meeting is critical. The question is whether the Committee frames this hike as insurance against inflation or signals a longer tightening cycle. Restrained guidance and stable long-end yields support crypto; higher rate projections tighten conditions across assets. Oil above $107 following a Saudi pipeline disruption adds pressure—prolonged energy prices could keep the Fed restrictive even as growth slows. Bitcoin faces resistance at $80–82k with support at $75–76k. The technical setup is reasonable; conviction depends on Wednesday's Fed guidance.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Market Colour, 11 September 2026

Bitcoin has retraced from $82,000 highs to trade near $77,000, giving back the entire rally as long-dated Treasury yields have risen sharply. Treasury Secretary Bessent's escalating intervention efforts have failed to stem the move. After tripling Wednesday's buyback operation to $6 billion, Thursday's auction took only $5.19 billion on offer—traders read it as Treasury stepping back. The 10-year cleared at 4.83%, the highest since 2007, while the 30-year broke through 5.3%.

The composition of the yield move is the worst for Bitcoin: a 5% risk-free rate driven by policy tightening, not growth. It undercuts the Treasury liquidity narrative that carried BTC from $63,000 to $82,000. Institutional flows have turned sharply, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording three straight days of outflows—the first sustained redemption since August's $3.8 billion streak.

Tonight's CPI at 8:30pm SGT is binary: Fed Governor Waller said his vote hinges on this print. Consensus expects 0.2% core. Bitcoin's critical support sits at $76,300–$76,500, tested repeatedly this week. One constructive signal: the 50-day just crossed above the 200-day near $70,000–$71,000, the first golden cross of this cycle. Sequencing matters: yield spike hurts first, liquidity helps later.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Themes - 10 September 2026

Yen rallied 160 to 154 on BOJ normalisation, carry unwinds, softer dollar. Japan's Aug reserves fell $87.8bn—potential yen-purchase funding—alert to intervention risk. Prior support fresh, USDJPY upside faces structural resistance. BOJ shifting from accommodation to normalisation.

PCE's spring spike looks energy-driven. Nondurables contributed 0.85pp of 1.24pp headline jump Feb-May, energy alone 0.89pp. By July, energy eased to 0.48pp. Headline relief real, core PCE sticky at 3.3%, keeping Fed focused on broadening price pressure.

August +162k NFP beat consensus by 109k, June-July revised 55k. Labour resilient despite higher rates; three-month avg 71k >> consensus. Soft-landing trade intact; household financing costs elevated.

Hormuz flows constrained, SPR at historic lows (286.6mb), geopolitical premium locked in.

If labour stays firm and inflation energy-led, does Fed's hold through year-end stick—or does sticky core force policy tightening by Friday?

QCP Market Colour, 7 September 2026

August's employment report delivered a significant upside surprise at 162,000 jobs added versus expectations of 55,000—a sharp rebound from July's revised gain of 21,000. The stronger print eased concerns around labour-market weakness and shifted attention firmly back toward inflation ahead of September's FOMC meeting.

Crypto remained well supported through the week. Bitcoin traded above $82,000 early before pulling back to $79,300, while Ethereum remained around $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $770 million in net inflows across September 1-4, though the pattern of Monday's outflow followed by Wednesday's sizeable inflow suggests institutional positioning ahead of key data rather than sustained new-capital conviction.

Technical resistance persists: Bitcoin faces headwinds at $80,000-$82,000, while Ethereum encounters selling above $2,500. This reflects caution until the inflation picture clarifies.

This week's focus is unambiguous. Friday's August CPI print is the key test for September policy expectations. A benign print would give the Fed more room to wait; another firm reading would strengthen the case for adjustment. With near-term volatility subdued at 37-38 percent despite approaching catalysts, CPI could provide the catalyst for a directional break.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Market Colour, 4 September 2026

One week after Jackson Hole, the focus has shifted from Warsh’s message to whether the hawkish repricing can hold.

Warsh made clear that the Fed’s predominant focus remains on prices, but softer labour data and Waller’s comments have since brought the September debate back towards hold versus hike.

At the same time, Treasury’s first expanded long-end buyback begins on 9 September, just as another 3-, 10- and 30-year auction cluster hits the market. That keeps the long end firmly in focus alongside CPI next week.

For crypto, spot demand has returned. BTC has traded between roughly $76,700 and $81,500 this week, while ETF flows rebounded sharply on Thursday after earlier outflows. Leverage also remains contained, suggesting the current constraint is more about spot supply around the highs than an overcrowded long position.

Tonight’s payrolls report is the next test. The key question is whether softer labour data can ease front-end rate expectations without long-end yields remaining elevated.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Themes - 3 September 2026

Kevin Warsh locked in the Fed's hawkish stance: 2% PCE is fixed, credibility is the mission. With headline PCE at 3.7%, no near-term cut advocates remain visible and forward guidance is deliberately reduced. The hawkish bloc is broader than dissent counts suggest.

Treasury doubled long-end buybacks to $4bn quarterly, but that's just 0.013% of the $31.5tn market—liquidity, not pivot. Heavy long-dated IG issuance adds pressure; tech now 38% of 10Y+ supply.

Physical risk hardened. Only one tanker crossed Hormuz post-strikes; SPR fell to 286.6mb (Nov 1982 low), 13.4mb below the stress zone. Wheat, corn, sugar rallied on supply concerns.

BTC rallied on short covering, not fresh leverage. ETF inflows near 95th percentile provide real spot demand, but MSTR funded accumulation via equity issuance—caution on the leverage story.

With policy guidance scarce and liquidity narrow, is this conviction or fragile positioning?

QCP Market Colour, 28 August 2026

$BTC heads into Jackson Hole around 80k, but tonight’s focus extends beyond whether Fed Chair Warsh sounds relatively hawkish or dovish.

July PCE showed headline inflation at 3.7% YoY and core at 3.3%, leaving inflation above the Fed’s objective. At the same time, July’s 9–3 FOMC vote revealed a meaningful split, with three policymakers preferring a 25bp hike. Markets currently assign around a 35% probability to a September increase.

The backdrop has been complicated further by the long end. Treasury’s decision to increase liquidity-support buybacks initially pushed longer-dated yields lower, highlighting how Treasury-market liquidity can feed through to broader financial conditions.

Meanwhile, risk appetite remains supported by Nvidia’s latest results: revenue reached $96.2bn and Data Center sales rose 117% YoY, reinforcing continued AI infrastructure demand.

Under the surface, BTC’s rally also has a notable composition. Spot ETFs have attracted more than $2.8bn across eight consecutive inflow sessions, while futures open interest has declined in BTC terms and funding has remained relatively contained.

Warsh speaks at 10pm SGT tonight. The key question is how he frames persistent inflation, financial conditions and the rise in longer-term yields.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Themes - 27 August 2026

The Fed’s 9–3 hold marked its first triple-hawkish dissent since September 2016. The minutes and support from two non-voters suggest the hawkish bloc is broader than the tally, with further tightening possible if inflation stalls.

Treasury doubled long-end buybacks from $2bn to $4bn per operation and increased them from two to four per quarter. Yields fell, but each operation represents just 0.013% of the $31.5tn Treasury market.

Physical risks are rising. Only two tankers crossed Hormuz on 25 August, while the SPR has fallen to 289.7mb, below its stress threshold.

In crypto, falling open interest points to short covering, while strong ETF inflows provide genuine spot demand. Strategy raised $2.01bn but bought no BTC for a second week, leaving holdings flat at 840,447.

With liquidity support limited, is this rally becoming structural—or still running on borrowed time?

QCP Market Colour, 24 August 2026

$BTC recorded its strongest week since March 2024, briefly reaching approximately 79.5k after gaining more than 20%.

The move coincided with a sharp shift in rates. After the US 30-year Treasury yield approached 5.3%, its highest since 2007, Treasury announced that long-end liquidity-support buybacks would increase from a maximum of $2bn to at least $4bn per operation from 9 September. Long yields initially fell and the dollar weakened, while BTC and gold moved higher.

Positioning helped accelerate the initial breakout, but spot participation subsequently strengthened. US-listed spot BTC and ETH ETFs attracted around $2.6bn combined last week, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025.

Attention now shifts to three different parts of the macro picture: PCE for inflation, Nvidia earnings for the AI investment cycle, and Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote for the monetary-policy framework.

Warsh speaks at 10pm SGT on Friday, while both July PCE and the second estimate of Q2 GDP arrive on Wednesday.

After a week dominated by positioning and Treasury-market developments, will this week's data provide greater clarity on the macro backdrop?

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Market Colour, 21 August 2026

Duration is back at the centre of the crypto conversation.

$BTC has moved from roughly 64k to towards 76k in four sessions, with the breakout coinciding with a sharp shift in long-end rates. After the US 30-year Treasury yield reached around 5.33%, its highest since 2007, Treasury announced that long-end liquidity-support buybacks would increase from a maximum of $2bn to at least $4bn per operation from 9 September.

The initial BTC move appears to have been driven largely by short covering. QCP desk data show aggressive perpetual buying running well ahead of spot on Wednesday while open interest remained broadly unchanged. Leverage then rebuilt as price extended on Thursday.

Spot demand followed. US spot BTC ETFs recorded $517m of net inflows on Wednesday, their strongest day since May, while perpetual funding has since moderated from its local highs without a comparable retracement in BTC.
Options have repriced too, with front-end implied volatility rising sharply from the subdued summer regime, even as downside skew remains relatively contained.

The broader question is bigger than the size of the Treasury buybacks. Long-end yields, sovereign issuance and AI-related borrowing are increasingly competing for the same pool of capital, making duration an important part of crypto's macro backdrop.

Next up: July PCE and Jackson Hole.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Themes - 19 August 2026

China’s crude imports rebounded 22% MoM to 8.41 mb/d in July as Hormuz partially reopened and supply shifted toward Russia and pipelines, but volumes remain 24% below last year. Inventories have also fallen from 1.40bn barrels in December to 1.20bn in July.

The drawdown is accelerating, with stocks down ~940k b/d, including a 41mb drop in June. Hormuz flows also remain fragile after the MOU expiry.

China is also building reserves in gold. The PBOC bought 19.9 tonnes in July—its largest since Oct 2023—lifting holdings to 2,366 tonnes, as gold traded ~30% below its January peak.

Yet options markets price little near-term stress. SPY skew sits at the 86th percentile and QQQ at the 84th, making puts unusually cheap versus calls, even as longer-dated crash protection remains bid.

When near-term protection is this cheap but long-dated insurance is still expensive, is the market calm—or complacent?

QCP Market Colour, 17 August 2026

BTC remains near the lower end of its recent range as softer US growth data compete with persistently elevated energy prices.

Friday's data showed preliminary consumer sentiment falling to 51.0, while July retail sales declined 0.6%, their largest monthly drop in more than a year. Together with softer labour data, that has helped bring the market-implied probability of a September Fed hike down to roughly 30%.

Oil is complicating that picture. Brent remains near $89 as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz persists, keeping an energy-driven inflation risk in the background.

For crypto, the theme remains resilience without momentum. BTC is holding around 63k and has avoided a larger breakdown, but rallies continue to struggle for sustained follow-through. Options tell a similar story, with one-week implied volatility around 26% against realised volatility closer to 20%.

Attention now turns to Wednesday's FOMC minutes, followed by July PCE and Jackson Hole later this month.

The range remains intact — but can softer growth eventually translate into stronger crypto demand while oil keeps inflation risk alive?

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Market Colour, 14 August 2026

BTC has moved back towards 63k, returning to the lower end of its recent range despite a softer US inflation backdrop. July CPI eased to 3.4% YoY, core inflation moderated to 2.5%, and PPI was flat on the month — but crypto's response has remained muted.

That leaves the theme from last week largely intact: resilience without momentum. BTC has continued to absorb a weaker labour market, geopolitical uncertainty and changing corporate treasury flows without a sustained breakdown, but supportive macro data have yet to produce lasting follow-through.
Policy is also moving on two tracks. The CLARITY Act has been pushed beyond the August recess, while the SEC and US banking regulators continue to develop frameworks around crypto capital raising and tokenized securities.

Meanwhile, Strategy disclosed another 1,690 BTC sale last week, reinforcing that corporate treasury flows can now move in both directions depending on balance-sheet conditions.

Hormuz remains another source of macro uncertainty, with Brent back around $88 as negotiations continue without a durable reopening of the strait.
For now, BTC remains rangebound rather than broken. The question is whether softer inflation and greater policy clarity can eventually translate into stronger demand, or whether constrained liquidity keeps momentum limited.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Themes - 12 August 2026

The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but the 9–3 vote revealed its deepest split since September 2016. Three dissenters argued that persistent inflation and a resilient labour market warranted earlier action, while reduced forward guidance has made each meeting harder to price.

Markets still assign a 57% chance of a September rate cut, even as the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.21%—a 19-year high. The disconnect between policy expectations and long-end yields is keeping the rates outlook unsettled.

That uncertainty extends to FX. After the yen weakened beyond ¥163 per dollar, Japan’s estimated ¥8.45tn intervention pushed USD/JPY back towards ¥157. The US joined a day later with an estimated $5–10bn operation—the first joint US–Japan yen-buying intervention since 1998—reinforcing that policymakers are prepared to act again.

When central banks stop guiding and start intervening, which policy signal should markets trust?

QCP Market Colour, 7 August 2026

BTC has recovered from around 62.5k at the start of the week to trade back near 64k. The move stands out less for its momentum than for what the market has absorbed: Strategy sold 1,638 BTC for approximately $105m, while reported losses from the Coldcard security incident have risen to around $110m. Neither event resulted in a sustained break lower.

Options markets reflect a similar lack of panic. Front-end implied volatility remains near the lower end of its recent range and downside skew has moderated, even as the macro backdrop stays mixed.

US manufacturing strengthened in July, but labour indicators have softened. JOLTS openings fell to 7.36m and ADP payrolls rose by only 44k, putting today's US employment report firmly in focus. Meanwhile, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent back above $83.

Japan remains another important liquidity variable following the joint intervention to support the yen. With domestic yields rising and the BOJ still holding around half of outstanding JGBs, Japanese funding conditions remain relevant well beyond the FX market.

For crypto, the distinction remains important: resilience has improved, but momentum remains limited. Macro liquidity, energy markets and the timing of US digital-asset legislation remain the key variables to watch.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.

QCP Macro Themes - 5 August 2026

The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but the 9–3 vote revealed its deepest split since September 2016. Three dissenters argued that persistent inflation and a resilient labour market warranted earlier action, while reduced forward guidance has made each meeting harder to price.

Markets are still assigning a 57% chance of a September rate cut, even as the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.21%—a 19-year high. The disconnect between policy expectations and long-end yields is keeping the rates outlook unsettled.

That uncertainty extends to FX. After the yen weakened beyond ¥163 per dollar, Japan’s estimated ¥8.45tn intervention pushed USD/JPY back towards ¥157. The US joined a day later with an estimated $5–10bn operation—the first joint US–Japan yen-buying intervention since 1998—reinforcing the signal that policymakers are prepared to act again.

When central banks stop guiding and start intervening,which policy signal should markets trust?