QCP Market Colour, 28 August 2026

$BTC heads into Jackson Hole around 80k, but tonight’s focus extends beyond whether Fed Chair Warsh sounds relatively hawkish or dovish.

July PCE showed headline inflation at 3.7% YoY and core at 3.3%, leaving inflation above the Fed’s objective. At the same time, July’s 9–3 FOMC vote revealed a meaningful split, with three policymakers preferring a 25bp hike. Markets currently assign around a 35% probability to a September increase.

The backdrop has been complicated further by the long end. Treasury’s decision to increase liquidity-support buybacks initially pushed longer-dated yields lower, highlighting how Treasury-market liquidity can feed through to broader financial conditions.

Meanwhile, risk appetite remains supported by Nvidia’s latest results: revenue reached $96.2bn and Data Center sales rose 117% YoY, reinforcing continued AI infrastructure demand.

Under the surface, BTC’s rally also has a notable composition. Spot ETFs have attracted more than $2.8bn across eight consecutive inflow sessions, while futures open interest has declined in BTC terms and funding has remained relatively contained.

Warsh speaks at 10pm SGT tonight. The key question is how he frames persistent inflation, financial conditions and the rise in longer-term yields.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.