QCP Macro Themes - 10 September 2026

Fed's September hike locked in the hiking cycle. Six of seven voting speakers hawkish; Kashkari, Musalem, Goolsbee all emphasize inflation is broad and demand-side pressure is real. Policy rate now 3.75%-4.00%. Hike camp firm; restrictive bias confirmed.

BOJ followed suit with rate hike from 1.00%, next hike priced for Q4. JPY flips to net long in leveraged funds; GBP longs unwinding. Dollar support reduced as central banks tighten in unison.

Hormuz tanker crossings at zero versus 29-vessel average. Geopolitical tension spiked then collapsed; Trump signalled openness to Iran talks. Brent pulled back to ~$101/bbl. Hormuz remains a chokepoint with Bab El Mandeb also at multi-decade lows.

Credit repricing sharply: Oracle CDS above 100bps. BTC ETF flows near 99th percentile, Q4 seasonality bid. Strategy resumed accumulation (950 BTC for $75.7m). SEC approved tokenized stock exemption; Clarity Act stalled.

With Fed and BOJ hiking lockstep, is macro regime fully tightened?