QCP Macro Themes - 10 September 2026

Yen rallied 160 to 154 on BOJ normalisation, carry unwinds, softer dollar. Japan's Aug reserves fell $87.8bn—potential yen-purchase funding—alert to intervention risk. Prior support fresh, USDJPY upside faces structural resistance. BOJ shifting from accommodation to normalisation.

PCE's spring spike looks energy-driven. Nondurables contributed 0.85pp of 1.24pp headline jump Feb-May, energy alone 0.89pp. By July, energy eased to 0.48pp. Headline relief real, core PCE sticky at 3.3%, keeping Fed focused on broadening price pressure.

August +162k NFP beat consensus by 109k, June-July revised 55k. Labour resilient despite higher rates; three-month avg 71k >> consensus. Soft-landing trade intact; household financing costs elevated.

Hormuz flows constrained, SPR at historic lows (286.6mb), geopolitical premium locked in.

If labour stays firm and inflation energy-led, does Fed's hold through year-end stick—or does sticky core force policy tightening by Friday?