QCP Market Colour, 18 September 2026

Bitcoin took two direct hits inside 48 hours and came out bid. The CLARITY Act's 49–50 cloture failure on Tuesday pushed BTC to a monthly low near $75,900, the Fed hiked the following afternoon, and spot recovered to $77,000 before settling around $76,500.

The flows are the more interesting part. Spot ETFs bled $450m on the 15th and $296m on the 16th, IBIT shedding $144m of it. Then on the 17th the tape turned: $159m of net inflows with IBIT taking $184m. The outflows bottomed on the hike itself, and the day after it the largest fund was a buyer.

The Fed's 25bp was priced above 90%, so Warsh was the story. Inflation remains "too high", conditions are not "restrictive", and he framed the move as "removing a dose of policy accommodation" before declining to give any forward guidance. The committee also raised its longer-run neutral estimate to 3.25% from 3.06%, which matters more for ten-year fair value than the near-term path. Yields bear-flattened Wednesday then fell across the curve Thursday, the long end rallying on the resolve. A hike today may mean fewer hikes tomorrow.

Crude retreated three sessions on Saudi restart guidance, though independent analysts see weeks rather than days and WTI is still up 18% on the month. This is a risk premium unwinding, not supply returning. The BOJ hiked to 1.25% and the yen weakened anyway. And the SEC used exemptive authority to clear the path for tokenized securities venues, five years of relief in place of the legislation Congress could not pass.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.