QCP Market Colour, 7 August 2026

BTC has recovered from around 62.5k at the start of the week to trade back near 64k. The move stands out less for its momentum than for what the market has absorbed: Strategy sold 1,638 BTC for approximately $105m, while reported losses from the Coldcard security incident have risen to around $110m. Neither event resulted in a sustained break lower.

Options markets reflect a similar lack of panic. Front-end implied volatility remains near the lower end of its recent range and downside skew has moderated, even as the macro backdrop stays mixed.

US manufacturing strengthened in July, but labour indicators have softened. JOLTS openings fell to 7.36m and ADP payrolls rose by only 44k, putting today's US employment report firmly in focus. Meanwhile, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent back above $83.

Japan remains another important liquidity variable following the joint intervention to support the yen. With domestic yields rising and the BOJ still holding around half of outstanding JGBs, Japanese funding conditions remain relevant well beyond the FX market.

For crypto, the distinction remains important: resilience has improved, but momentum remains limited. Macro liquidity, energy markets and the timing of US digital-asset legislation remain the key variables to watch.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.