QCP Market Colour, 4 September 2026

One week after Jackson Hole, the focus has shifted from Warsh’s message to whether the hawkish repricing can hold.

Warsh made clear that the Fed’s predominant focus remains on prices, but softer labour data and Waller’s comments have since brought the September debate back towards hold versus hike.

At the same time, Treasury’s first expanded long-end buyback begins on 9 September, just as another 3-, 10- and 30-year auction cluster hits the market. That keeps the long end firmly in focus alongside CPI next week.

For crypto, spot demand has returned. BTC has traded between roughly $76,700 and $81,500 this week, while ETF flows rebounded sharply on Thursday after earlier outflows. Leverage also remains contained, suggesting the current constraint is more about spot supply around the highs than an overcrowded long position.

Tonight’s payrolls report is the next test. The key question is whether softer labour data can ease front-end rate expectations without long-end yields remaining elevated.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.