QCP Macro Themes - 19 August 2026

China’s crude imports rebounded 22% MoM to 8.41 mb/d in July as Hormuz partially reopened and supply shifted toward Russia and pipelines, but volumes remain 24% below last year. Inventories have also fallen from 1.40bn barrels in December to 1.20bn in July.

The drawdown is accelerating, with stocks down ~940k b/d, including a 41mb drop in June. Hormuz flows also remain fragile after the MOU expiry.

China is also building reserves in gold. The PBOC bought 19.9 tonnes in July—its largest since Oct 2023—lifting holdings to 2,366 tonnes, as gold traded ~30% below its January peak.

Yet options markets price little near-term stress. SPY skew sits at the 86th percentile and QQQ at the 84th, making puts unusually cheap versus calls, even as longer-dated crash protection remains bid.

When near-term protection is this cheap but long-dated insurance is still expensive, is the market calm—or complacent?