workforce can be charted:

[labor force exits include retirements and other exits, occupations transfers are separate from moves between airlines, therefore inter-airline transfers are not included](https://preview.redd.it/8vp1lizg45uh1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=15eae1f486832d28ce8c50c6923135956f8f04db)

Before we can continue with future hiring demands, we must take into account historical precedent with respect to the hiring market. The data shows that passenger numbers hold a weak correlation with hiring changes. The hiring spike in 2022 and 2023 should not be considered as typical, due to extraordinary disruptions within the industry.

https://preview.redd.it/ij4jg5zh45uh1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b76cd9af4e142f8981401692380d60413470772e

With all this in mind, we now have enough data to being drawing conclusions with respect to future hiring markets, beginning with workforce growth compared to the available stock of ATP pilots within the United States.

https://preview.redd.it/bx1jwbvi45uh1.jpg?width=1036&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=44babcaa4fed69dd1900f183148cbcd460268896

This chart depicts the estimated growth of the pilot workforce on the Y axis over ten years on the X axis. If the pilot workforce grows quicker than expected, represented by the green line, then competition will increase in the available pilot pool, rapidly exceeding the amount of ATPs that are available to be issued. If the pilot pool does not grow as expected as represented by the brown line, then hiring competition will decrease sharply, allowing for many more pilots to be hired at minimums. As it stands, the realistic model shows that there will only be a slight surplus of pilots for the amount of available ATPs, therefore competition will most likely stay stable where it is now.

An important takeaway from this chart is that it does not measure airline demand for pilots. If airline demand grows by 20% while the pilot supply grows by 8.3%, then the shortage persists, and vice versa.

With this in mind, we can now look at the current pilot pool and derive estimations as to what is next for the hiring market, beginning with the previous ten years of pilot issuances.

https://preview.redd.it/6w5vfhmj45uh1.jpg?width=1057&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fa44dfb7853576298f9b18488d552cce87774e33

And the pipeline of production through training give us:

https://preview.redd.it/9r5fdjzj45uh1.jpg?width=1051&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c80de964de469030216f5b64af1f952cb9956543

Which can be extrapolated historically to:

https://preview.redd.it/wszen1gk45uh1.jpg?width=1051&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7cfbfd9fd8e9a9b38c4408f593f91e6017c57680

Commercial airplane production rose from 17,744 in 2024 to 20,069 in 2025 (+13.1%); original CFI production rose 13.3%. Original airplane ATP issuance fell 18.9%, from 9,513 to 7,714, following 11,218 in 2023. This divergence is consistent with upstream time-building growth and variable downstream certification throughput. It does not by itself prove a shortage or an applicant surplus.

ATP issuance can follow hiring and training-class timing as well as underlying readiness. GAO notes that original ATP totals also include qualifying no-test issuances. We therefore use the history to calibrate a production proxy and test its sensitivity; we do not interpret a same-year ATP/commercial ratio as an individual's chance of reaching the airlines.

With all this data, the annual supply versus hiring demand numbers can now be displayed:

https://preview.redd.it/it7z01jm45uh1.jpg?width=1063&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=08513fb13e41aa8f6a594d42b995a440df249e1c

https://preview.redd.it/raom4kjn45uh1.jpg?width=1045&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e290d99b5c5293c7cc78308e85eb5deac1f6723f

[The Y axis represents the supply of pilots, compared to the X axis representing airline demand, giving a percentage of available pilots for the total available jobs, a percentage over 100% represents a surplus, a percentage under 100% represents a