QCP Market Colour, 12 October 2026

A year on from crypto's largest single-day liquidation, 10/10, BTC looks to be on firmer footing. The feared repeat washout hasn't materialised, with price holding up despite jitters over sizeable US government BTC transfers and reports of a Ledger hack over the weekend.

BTC keeps failing at $87k but has held its range, with support around $80k. Implied vol is firm and risk reversals show a less pronounced premium for puts than usual: less defensive positioning, but a breakout is still priced. A clean move above $87k would bring $94k into focus. October has historically been a strong month for crypto (last year the notable exception), and options pricing hints at a return to the pattern.

The catalysts land this week: CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday and Warsh at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings on Friday, where any echo of his hawkish Jackson Hole messaging could weigh on risk. Markets price roughly a 17% chance of an October hike, so a hold is the base case, but this week's data could test it. Targeted upside interest shows up in a sizeable long 30 Oct $90k/$95k/$100k Call Butterfly, the largest end-October open interest concentration.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.