QCP Macro Themes, 1 October 2026

Direct US-Iran contact confirmed but offers rejected. Iran pitched 7-day plan but disagreement over urgency remains. Hormuz at 2 crossings versus 32 average; Bab El Mandeb disrupted. SPR thinnest since 1982.

US activity re-accelerating. PMI composite hit 58.4 (strongest since Jul 2021). Input costs near 4-year low. Stronger growth plus sticky costs driving duration demand. 10Y above 5%, up 53bps.

Trump-Xi summit extended trade truce to Jan 10 (shorter than 3–6 months floated). Iran/N.Korea dialogue advanced, no agreements. US-China risk moderated.

AI capex repricing credit: Oracle free cash flow −$5.4bn despite 30% revenue growth; capex ~$420bn in 2027. Spreads widening. OpenAI shelved finished model (pacing confirmed). SEC approved tokenized stock exemption. Strategy resumed BTC accumulation ($142.7m).

Does duration demand ease, or does repricing fuel further term premium?