QCP Macro Themes, 8 October 2026

US-Iran talks deadlocked on Hormuz sequencing. Washington shifted to pressure—pulling Iran's delegation, adding sanctions—while leaving Qatar's channel open. Hormuz crossings at 3 vessels versus 26 average; SPR down 28% since May.

Energy freight surging. West Africa-China crude freight tripled to $27.22/bbl versus $7.37 YTD avg (+319%). Crude exports normalised but refined-product flows lag 33%. Tighter tanker availability points to structurally higher delivered costs.

Sterling weakness is a dollar story. GBP/USD fell to 1.3193 but EUR/GBP holding 0.8481—euro headwinds cushioning sterling. Oracle CDS at 247bps, nearly 2x peers. AI-capex repricing widening.

JPY positioning shifted: leveraged funds net short, asset managers building longs. Carry cushion halved to 2.63pp. Anthropic IPO slipped to mid-Nov (~$2tn). Strategy slowed BTC buying; STRC buybacks prioritised. ETF flows cool. Clarity Act stalled.

Does geopolitical premium fuel unwinds or is positioning fragile enough?