QCP Market Colour, 5 October 2026

The macro narrative flipped completely in three weeks: from "hike in October" to "October hike priced out, Fed on hold." September payrolls collapsed to just 29k versus 84k expected; unemployment rose to 4.2%; wage growth slowed to 3.0% year-on-year (lowest since May 2021). The three-month payroll average dropped to 50.7k—roughly one-third the pace a year ago. This dovish labour print supports an October Fed pause, yet the 10-year Treasury sits stubbornly at 5.25% as supply and term-premium dynamics override growth signals. October hike odds fell to 22%.

Bitcoin recovered to $86,700 after Friday's $87,100 rejection, suggesting dip demand remains present. Weekend liquidations were light at $62.7m with shorts accounting for 68%. Acceptance above $87,200 remains necessary to confirm the next leg. Ethereum holds $2,725 within the $2,650-$2,800 range; the setup remains cautiously constructive.

FOMC Minutes Wednesday is the major catalyst—markets parsing whether the hawkish dissents reflected conviction or compromise. TOKEN2049 Singapore Thu-Fri may introduce volatility. Watch October 14 CPI as the first test of disinflation reassertance.

Read the full QCP Market Colour here.