QCP Asia Colour – 5 June 2025

Joyful June: Markets Stay Resilient Despite Data Misses

Despite a batch of disappointing US macro data overnight, including weaker-than-expected ADP employment figures and a soft ISM print, risk assets held their ground, underscoring the market’s enduring resilience.

In characteristic fashion, President Trump wasted no time in pivoting blame, criticising Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for failing to cut rates and accusing the Fed of falling behind the ECB. Just hours later, Trump doubled down, tweeting that the US debt ceiling should be permanently abolished. This was a clear nod to the growing narrative of fiscal dominance that continues to buoy risk sentiment.

Adding fuel to the fire, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant unveiled the “Big Beautiful Bill,” promising 100% tax expensing for new US manufacturing and R&D hubs. All eyes now turn to July 4, when Congress will vote on the “One Big Beautiful Act” (OBBB) and address the debt ceiling, likely through either suspension or a hike by August.

Institutional Adoption Ramps Up as JPM Validates Crypto Collateral

Momentum in institutional crypto adoption continues to gather pace. JPMorgan has greenlit the use of crypto ETFs as collateral for loans across its retail, trading, and wealth management arms, formally recognising crypto as part of a client’s net worth and balance sheet. This marks a significant validation moment for the asset class.

Listed corporates are also joining the movement. K Wave Media and Treasure Global are the latest to announce allocations to crypto treasuries, following a trend that is fast becoming a pillar of treasury diversification.

Meanwhile, Circle Internet Financial has officially filed for IPO, targeting an FDV between $7.6 billion and $8.1 billion. In parallel, rumours are swirling around a token launch from a prominent Solana-based memecoin launchpad, suggesting retail euphoria remains alive and well under the surface.

Flows Slow but Fundamentals Remain Constructive

After a record-breaking May, spot ETF inflows have decelerated modestly. On 4 June, spot BTC ETF inflows totalled $87 million, while ETH ETF flows came in at $57 million. Despite the seasonal summer lull, the structural backdrop remains intact. With both BTC and ETH emission rates now trailing global money supply growth, a long-term positive price drift appears increasingly probable.

Fresh treasury buyers are absorbing supply. ETH, in particular, looks firm, testing its 200D moving average repeatedly without forming lower lows. ETHBTC remains near 0.025, reflecting relative strength in ETH as the pair trades close to range highs.

Positioning for Breakouts: Bullish Structures Gain Traction

With fiscal catalysts continuing to tilt macro conditions in BTC’s favour, any upside breakout could carry us past all-time highs. Bullish September ERKO Seagulls offer zero-to-low cost participation in this scenario, serving as an efficient structure for capturing asymmetrical upside.

Some institutional flows appear to agree. Demand for September 130k BTC calls is percolating, hinting at growing conviction behind a bullish breakout narrative.