QCP Weekend Brief - 28 Jun 24

An onslaught of bearish headlines throughout the week has taken BTC back down to the 60k support region.

Can this level hold?
- 58-60k in BTC has been a hardy support level in Q2.
- However, this time, the market has to deal with overwhelming supply from the Mt. Gox unlocks as well as selling by government bodies.

Our view
- We think the scary supply numbers are probably overstated and that the market will grind sideways in a range.
- We could test lower towards 50k levels but the market will find strong support there, as interest from TradFi continues to permeate given the general regulatory easing across the world.
- The ETH spot ETF remains a bullish catalyst and it is likely to start trading in early July.
- Additionally, spot ETFs for other majors like SOL will also trigger some excitement.

Trade ideas
For BTC, prioritise yield generation in a sideways market for Q3 and use the returns generated to make some Q4 directional bets.
For ETH, it might be worth taking a short-term bullish punt into the ETF launch.
(Spot ref 60k BTCUSD, 3365 ETHUSD)

BTC CFCC (27-Sep 3 months)
Earn 55% pa every Friday as long as spot price is above 60k, the current spot level.
Threshold: 60k BTCUSD
Strike: 55k BTCUSD
Protection: 50k BTCUSD
At expiry, only if spot price is below 50k, the USD deployed is converted to BTC at 55k price.

ETH Zero-Cost ERKO Seagull
Max Return: 901.2% p.a. or $2,000 per ETH if spot price is just below 6k level at expiry.
Sell 3k Put to buy 4k Call with 6k knock-out
Cost: ZERO
Expiry: 26-Jul