Trump on prediction markets: "The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino"
Asked on Thursday if he was concerned about the potential for insider trading on prediction markets, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he was "never much in favor" of betting in financial markets.
Trump's comments came shortly after the Department of Justice indicted a US Army soldier who was involved in the planning of the US capture of Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors say Gannon Ken Van Dyke used classified information to reap more than $400,000 in profit on prediction market.
When will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz finally return to normal?
It could take six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines, the Pentagon has informed Congress.
US defence officials said lawmakers were told that Iran may have deployed 20 or more mines in and around the vital shipping route, which carries a significant share of global oil exports through the Persian Gulf.
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This case raises a wild question: According to Météo-France, a complaint was filed after signs of unauthorized access to a temperature sensor at Charles de Gaulle Airport.
On April 6, the sensor suddenly showed an unexpected spike to 21°C - far outside normal conditions.
Right after that, a freshly created account reportedly made around $14,000 betting on that exact outcome.
Ishaq Dar is pushing hard to keep things from escalating. On Tuesday, he officially called on both the U.S. and Iran to extend the current truce, stressing that only dialogue and diplomacy can stabilize the region.
According to Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, they want to prolong the 14-day ceasefire (agreed April 8) to create room for another round of direct negotiations.
Meanwhile, markets are actively pricing the outcome: - April 21 - 22% - April 22 - 44%
Donald Trump is talking about releasing UFO-related files, pushing the topic back into the spotlight. At the same time, Andy Ogles claims he’s seen extremely classified material...
And yet the market still leans heavily skeptical: The odds of UFO files being released are 19% by April 30 and 87% by December 31
This isn’t even a wild prediction. Trump is known for speaking off-script. Trump is known for speaking off-script, going after opponents, journalists, even allies, and doing it publicly and directly. It's just behaviour pattern.
Markets are pricing 70-80% odds every single day until April 30. And it feels mispriced, like selling a $1 for 80 cents.
• ~70% of users lose money • Top 1% capture ~84% of all profits • Prices are highly efficient (≈ true probabilities)
This isn’t luck.
Profits come from skill - identifying mispriced contracts and acting as a market maker. Losses concentrate among retail traders chasing longshots and overtrading.
Prediction markets don’t create wealth - they redistribute it.
The next U.S. - Iran meeting is expected later this week, even after the last talks collapsed with no deal.
With a U.S. naval blockade in place and major issues like nuclear demands and sanctions still unresolved. Despite that, both sides are still signaling they want to avoid full escalation.
Meanwhile, new U.S. - Iran prediction markets are popping up nonstop, as traders try to price every possible outcome in real time.
