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Predictore

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Showing posts older than #105 · Back to latest

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Post #104 12
This trader thought he had an edge - or maybe believed he knew something.

In prediction markets, this happens too: 50% odds… across three events:
- Bills vs Jaguars → -$1.4M (-93%)
- Packers vs Bears → -$1.36M (-98%)
- Capitals vs Blackhawks → -$744K (-100%)

Million-dollar confidence. Almost total wipeout.The market doesn’t care how sure you feel. Always manage your risks.
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Post #103 12
The U.S. has officially launched a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz - and this isn’t a short-term move.

With tensions already high, the operation is expected to stay in place for the foreseeable future, signaling a prolonged disruption to one of the world’s most critical oil routes.

Just 22% odds that Trump lifts the Hormuz blockade by April 19
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Post #102 12
$1 → $76,546 with the simplest strategy possible.

No charts. No analysis.
Trader just buys contracts under 1¢ and sets sell orders at 99¢.

He’s wrong 94% of the time - and still wins.
Because one hit = 100x, covering every loss.

Found 20+ traders doing the same.
Combined profit? $5M+
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Post #101 13
BREAKING: Oil is ripping higher again.

After Donald Trump announced a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, markets are now pricing a move back above $115 for U.S. crude.

With one of the world’s key oil routes under threat, traders are rapidly flipping to full bullish mode

Markets give a 38% chance of $120 this month
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Post #100 12
- What’s the weather forecast for today?
- +$101K


Did you forget about these markets? This profile keeps printing. From $300 to $101K in 2 months.

It scans forecasts across 20 cities, targeting ultra-rare events priced at 0.01¢–0.1¢.

Results speak:
- $25 → $12,452
- $16 → $8,106
- $11 → $5,752

Behind it: forecasts from ECMWF, HRRR, METAR + EV calculation.

Tiny bets. Massive upside.
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Post #99 10
The White House expressed "extreme concern" about insider trading

The White House warned staff not to place well-timed bets on prediction or futures markets after suspicious trades occurred just before Trump paused Iran strikes.
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Post #98 14
$1.1M on a single bet.

A trader named Wizard is apparently a real magician.
He clearly knows what he’s doing.

Latest stats:
- +$892K profit (last week)
- $1.1M biggest win
- $3.5M+ volume

Perfect hit rate on top football markets. Strategy is simple but brutal: He focuses La Liga, UEFA Champions League, Conference League and fires 6-7 figure bets...

Example:
- $970K on Osasuna
- $2.1M on Liverpool

Only 18 trades - already hit 7-figure wins. Not just volume. Precision + size.
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Post #97 13
What will WTI Crude Oil hit in April 2026?

WTI fell to ~$96-97 (-14% in a day), Brent to $91-95 - the sharpest drop since the Gulf War.

Base case now: if supply normalizes → $90-105 range.
If disruptions remain → closer to $115.
If conflict restarts → fast move back to $110-130.

Market odds reflect the uncertainty:
$130+ → 12-22%
Below $90 → 86%
Below $80 → 55%
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Post #96 13
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

The spike is driven by rising political pressure after his recent foreign policy moves, especially around Iran, with Democrats already floating and preparing new impeachment efforts.

So yeah, expect the drama. But don’t expect him to actually lose power.

Markets are getting aggressive: chances are around 70%
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Post #95 10
Odds are spiking fast.

Markets now give a ~20 - 21% chance the U.S. gets Iran’s enriched uranium within weeks - all-time highs.

With talk of force on the table and signals Iran could give it up under pressure, this is no longer just diplomacy.

It’s deal… or extraction.
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Post #94 9
$12K → $461K in just one bet

No strategy, no insider info (probably…).
Always risky bets, lots of losses.
And then - one win wipes them all out 100x.

Trader bought 477,543 shares of "US x Iran ceasefire by April 7" at 2.8¢ and made 30,000%.

He held through it all. Didn’t exit early.
One bet could be all it takes to leave your job.
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Post #93 8
$264K total PnL. Trader isn’t predicting BTC… he’s farming it.

Simple rule:
If price trends for 4 minutes → he hits continuation on minute 5. Not guessing.

$264K PnL
9,127 trades
$6K biggest win

No “perfect entries.” No emotions. Just the same pattern.
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Post #92 8
Trump: "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will."

Meanwhile, traders give a 13% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by the end of April.
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Post #91 8
OpenAI doesn’t expect to be profitable until at least 2030

OpenAI expects to spend approximately $600B on compute infrastructure by 2030. Also the company projects spending $121B on compute in 2028 alone.

Traders predict 16% chance that AI bubble bursts this year
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Post #90 8
Iran rejected a US-backed ceasefire, delivered through Pakistan.

Tehran isn’t interested in a temporary pause. They’re demanding a full end to the war, plus sanctions relief and security guarantees in the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders predict 25% of a ceasefire by the end of April.
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Post #89 8
Trump extends Iran’s deadline to Tuesday 8 pm EST

Previously, Trump said in a post on Truth Social that Iran had a 48-h deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz or the US would "hit and obliterate" power plants

Traders predict 11% chance Hormuz traffic returns to normal in april
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Post #88 9
A bit of a break from the war and political news.

New market: Will Trump dance during White House Easter Egg Roll on April 6?

Trump often dances in public, especially at rallies and campaign events. It has become a recognizable part of his persona.

Traders give 39% chance
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Post #87 12
One trader flipped $5 → $5,000 in 24h.
That’s 99,900% on a single trade

The play?
Weather market:
Will Shenzhen hit 27°C on March 29?

He aped in at 0.1¢ - basically impossible odds. And it hit.

Let that sink in:
$0.001 → life-changing upside.

These markets are mispriced…
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Post #86 10
BREAKING: Tehran reportedly refused to meet U.S. officials in Islamabad, calling Washington’s demands “unacceptable” - and effectively killing the latest peace attempt.

Meanwhile, tensions are rising - markets are reacting.

20% chance a diplomatic meeting happens this month.
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Post #85 10
Three wallets. But it smells like one player

On-chain says it all:
- Same funding source
- YES on Péter Magyar as Hungary’s next PM
- Top 3 holders in the market

Total size: $656K
If it hits → $1.13M payout
Election in 9 days, polls show him far ahead

That’s not random money.
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