Who Wins and Who Loses In Prediction Markets?

• ~70% of users lose money
• Top 1% capture ~84% of all profits
• Prices are highly efficient (≈ true probabilities)

This isn’t luck.

Profits come from skill - identifying mispriced contracts and acting as a market maker. Losses concentrate among retail traders chasing longshots and overtrading.

Prediction markets don’t create wealth - they redistribute it.