Morning Bites (part 1)

🇨🇱Chile’s copper output declined 13% YoY in August, vs. the 9% YoY decrease in July, per INE data. The contraction was driven by unfavorable weather conditions in northern Chile and storm-related port disruptions. Meanwhile, on an 8mo26 basis, local Cu output was down 8% YoY

Considering the negative dynamics in Chilean production (~24% of global mined Cu supply), Cochilco has recently revised its 2026 output forecast to 5.3mnt, which would represent a decline of 3% YoY, from 5.6mnt previously (+4% YoY). It has also lowered its 2027 supply outlook 8%, to 5.5mnt. Given the 8mo26 dynamics, we think this new guidance is unduly sanguine and see room for underperformance

We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)

#copper