Morning Bites (part 2)

🇨🇱Chile’s copper output decreased 9% YoY in July, vs. the 5% YoY increase in June, per the INE data. The drop in output was primarily due to severe snowfalls and adverse weather conditions in northern Chile, which disrupted mining and processing activities. The impact was compounded by scheduled maintenance at major operations, while longer term production remains constrained by declining ore grades and broader operational challenges. In 7mo26, output was still down 7% YoY

Considering the negative dynamics in Chilean production (~24% of global mined Cu supply), Cochilco has revised its 2026 output forecast down to 5.3mnt (-2% YoY), from 5.6mnt previously (+4% YoY). Its 2027 supply outlook has also been reduced 8%, to 5.5mnt. Given the production dynamics, we think this new guidance is overly upbeat and see room for some underperformance

We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)

#copper