Morning Bites (part 3)

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-November was 1.93mnt, up 6.0% vs. the previous ten days, but 8.1% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 5.9% over the period, and were up 13.4% YoY

According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 10 November), production stood flat YoY; per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.9% YoY in 10mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 10mo25) remain elevated

To recap, in late-October China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe

China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply

#steel