Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗China’s net finished steel exports declined 13% YoY in October, reversing the increase of 3% YoY in September. Although the figure is lower than the historical peak, it remains at elevated levels. We remind readers that China aims to lower “excessive” steel output in 2025 (-3% YoY in 9mo25) and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise abnormally high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 10mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026

🪨China’s coal imports dropped 10% YoY in October, vs. the -3% YoY in September. Per Reuters, the decline was mostly due to the effect of public holidays (fewer working days for October 2025). Although some market representatives expect imports to be supported by winter restocking in November-December 2025, we note already high coal inventories in China, representing ~15% of China's annual demand (as of mid-2025)

#coal #steel