Morning Bites (part 2)

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-October was 1.82mnt, down 9.8% vs. the previous ten days, and 13.2% lower YoY. Local steel inventories fell 11.8% over the period, and were up 7.3% YoY

According to CISA data, on a YTD basis (through 31th October), production dynamics remained slightly positive (+0.7% YoY), while, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 2.9% YoY in 9mo25. To recap, China aims to lower “excessive” steel output and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. In our view, this measure could help to normalise the anomaly of high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 10% YoY in 9mo25) and support global steel prices in 2026

China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply

#steel