Geopolitics Prime

🇾🇪🔥An Iranian LEGO crew retells Yemen’s battles – from Al Mokha to Bab el-Mandeb.

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Trump’s gas-huffing CENTCOM commander says Hormuz oil shipping is doing just fine

“The volume of crude oil, cargo and liquid natural gas these past two weeks is higher than at any point in the past six months,” CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper boasted in a video address Saturday.

“We’re also working with every partner in the region, enhancing their air defense, forming a new coalition attack drone unit, and keeping the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters open and clear,” Cooper said.

Claiming Gulf Arab exporters have shipped 1B+ barrels of crude through the strait “in the last couple months” while Iran’s exports hit “zero,” the commander assured that “clearly, momentum is building.”

CENTCOM and the Trump administration’s claims that oil is flooding through Hormuz has run up against the findings of independent maritime intelligence and tracking firms, which haven’t been able to find these magical ghost ships using commercial satellite data and radar tracking.

US claims also contradict one another, with CENTCOM’s 1B barrel figure averaging out to over 16.5M bpd, two-thirds more than the administration’s recent ~10M bpd estimate.

The administration itself has also been caught fiddling with its figures, with the DoE recently claiming regional exporters have squeezed out an additional 5-7M bpd in export capacity via pipelines (the IEA says available capacity is actually only 3.5-5.5M bpd).

And that was before the attack on Saudi Arabia’s massive East-West pipeline, which, together with Houthi strikes on Saudi refineries and transit hubs, crippled virtually the entirety of the kingdom’s 7M bpd export capacity via the Red Sea.

Cooper’s “higher than at any point in the past six months” comment is also just dishonest. Six months ago, the US and Israel were a month into their war of aggression against Iran, with fighting at its zenith, and Hormuz almost totally shut to any traffic. In fact, an uptick in commercial shipping began in late March and early April, following initial conditional ceasefire agreements and permission-based transit for selected countries by Iran.

Leaving US attempts to massage the raw data aside, the proof that Iran’s Hormuz pressure campaign is working is reflected in prices – the prices Americans, their allies and people everywhere are paying at the pump, in the grocery store, for airline tickets, and virtually everything else in the economy that requires energy to create or operate, which is – well, pretty much everything. Want the pain to stop? Meet Iran’s peace terms.

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Russian precision strikes hit military-linked targets across Ukraine

The following targets were hit, the Russian Defense Ministry said:

Kiev and Kiev region

🌏Radionix radio electronics plant, which manufactures guidance systems for the Flamingo, Neptune, FP-7, and FP-9 missiles

🌏Be-Mobile data center, which handles data storage, processing, and transmission — including intelligence-related data — and supports network equipment used by the Ukrainian army

🌏Fire Point warehouse containing drone components and launch boosters

Odessa region

🌏 Novaya Pochta logistics center used to store and distribute military cargo

Port of Odessa

🌏Cargo ship that had delivered military supplies

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Overnight Russian strikes target Kiev and Sumy regions

Geran drones attacked an industrial facility near Kiev, preliminary reports indicate.

Also, footage shows a fire following strikes on targets in Konotop, Sumy region.

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🔥 Trump mulls strikes on Houthis after Riyadh attack — report

Indications are growing that the US is preparing to open a new front against the Houthis in Yemen, after a ballistic missile was fired at the Saudi capital.

President Trump returned to the White House early from Camp David, cancelling all scheduled events — with CNN reporting his meeting at the retreat focused on deliberating Yemen strike options.

🌏 US embassies across the Middle East — Israel, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Jordan, Lebanon, and Bahrain — issued security alerts.

🌏 In recent days, Houthi strikes have hit Jeddah, Yanbu, Abha, Jazan, and the East-West pipeline, simultaneously gaining control over the Yemen's entire Red Sea coast and the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

🌏 The US can't supply its own allies — Patriot stocks are down from ~3,100 to ~800, and the Pentagon has warned of five-year weapons delays.

The US struck a ceasefire with the Houthis last year after bombing them for 2 months. Under its terms, the Houthis halted attacks on American vessels — and the US agreed to stay out of the Yemen conflict.

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📈 Iran's oil sales top $3B in September — highest monthly value in 2 years

The US claims the blockade is working, yet Iran's oil exports are having their best month in two years, according to a report by the Mehr News Agency, citing Iran's Plan and Budget Organization.

🔶 At Brent's September 18 price of $103.87, $3 billion represents roughly 29.1 million barrels — about 1.53 million barrels per day

🔶 The actual volume depends on Iran's discount to Brent, so the real figure could be higher

🔶 The reported sales may include cargo loaded before the US reinstated the blockade on July 14

Either the blockade isn't as tight as advertised, or Iran has learned to sell from the shadows. Either way, the pressure campaign isn't producing the collapse the US promised.

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🛢🔍 France runs dry: 11% of gas stations empty as fuel prices near records — and Macron's 2018 nightmare returns

France is facing growing fuel shortages, with 11% of the country's gas stations reporting they are out of either gasoline or diesel, according to French government data — and the political stakes could hardly be higher.

The prices behind the panic:

🔴 Diesel averaging around €2.38 per liter — roughly $10.33 per gallon

🔴 Gasoline prices also near historic highs

🔴 The surge is linked to high oil prices from the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz

Paris insists the country has adequate strategic fuel reserves — and that the shortages are primarily the result of logistical disruptions rather than an overall lack of supply.

👉 In 2018, fuel prices and fuel taxation triggered the Yellow Vest protests — a nationwide uprising that nearly brought down Macron's presidency. Diesel at €2.38 is well above the levels that sparked those demonstrations. The government's "logistical disruption" framing echoes the dismissals that preceded the 2018 explosion.

The last time French drivers faced these prices, they shut down the country — and nearly ended a presidency. Can Macron survive this time?

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📹 Air defenses activated at Kharab Al-Jir base in northeastern Syria

Air defenses were activated at Kharab Al-Jir base in northeastern Syria, close to the Iraqi border, according to reports.

The cause is currently unknown.

The base is located in a strategically sensitive area — near the Iraqi frontier and within the broader zone where US forces, Iranian-aligned groups, and Israeli operations have converged in recent months.

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🚨 US embassies issue security alert across the Middle East

The US State Department has issued security and STEP alerts to American citizens across the Middle East, warning of heightened risks amid ongoing regional tensions. The affected countries are Israel, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Jordan, Lebanon, and Bahrain.

Americans currently in the region should exercise heightened vigilance and be aware of potential flight cancellations, airspace closures, and travel disruptions.

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🔊 Mecca Agreement commitments will be met — Turkish FM

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan says the country is closely monitoring attacks on Saudi territory and stands ready to fulfill its obligations under the Mecca Agreement — signaling that military support may be on the table.

"There may be specific military needs—particularly concerning certain technical matters—and we would face no difficulty in meeting them."

Amid Houthi strikes, Saudi Arabia has reportedly asked France, Britain, Pakistan, and Egypt for air defense support as its interceptor stocks are running low.

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🔥🔍 Houthis charge Saudis with ‘ISIS-style’ terror conspiracy in Sanaa
 
Unable to stop Ansar Allah on the battlefield, Riyadh has reportedly resorted to attempts to orchestrate terror attacks in Yemen’s capital.

Armed Forces spokesman Yahya Saree announced late Friday that the military had “thwarted criminal attempts” by the Saudi enemy to stage attacks in Sanaa “bearing the hallmarks of ISIS.”

On Saturday, Yemen’s Foreign Ministry warned that Sanaa “possesses the legitimate right to respond to any Saudi Daeshi activity targeting its security and stability,” and would “take the necessary measures.”

The ministry stressed that the terror plots brought “back to memory what the Saudi regime did in the past in many countries of the region, foremost among them Yemen, Iraq, Syria and others” – a reference to the Saudi royal family’s sponsorship of Sunni Islamist jihadist groups -including al-Qaeda-linked forces in Iraq and Syria, and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen.

The Houthis did not disclose the specific tactical details or targets of the alleged Saudi intel-sponsored terrorist plots, nor details on the measures taken to dismantle enemy terror cells. But the plots and Sanaa’s warnings of a “response” may explain the notable uptick in Houthi missile attacks on Saudi cities, including the capital, Riyadh, over the past 24 hours.

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🇨🇳🌏 How China is expanding its military footprint across Africa

China is steadily increasing its ability to operate far beyond its borders, and Africa is becoming an increasingly important part of that effort, the SCMP says in its analytical piece.

The latest example came in Egypt, where six Chinese J-16 fighter jets took part in the Eagles of Civilization exercise, marking the aircraft’s first known deployment in Africa.

The deployment itself was a test of China’s long-range military logistics. The fighters travelled around 6,000 km to Egypt in roughly nine hours with aerial refueling, demonstrating the PLA’s ability to move and support a combat-capable air package thousands of kilometers from home.

The exercise also gave Chinese pilots a rare opportunity to train against French-made Rafale fighters operated by the Egyptian Air Force.

The drills covered:

🔶Long- and short-range air combat

🔶 Air-to-ground strikes

🔶 Suppression of enemy air defenses

🔶 Combat search and rescue

🔶 Integrated command and control

The exercise also allowed the PLA to test its preparedness in areas such as strategic lift, logistics, and global command — capabilities that become increasingly important when operating far from China.

China has spent decades building military ties across Africa, gradually expanding from officer training and defense exchanges to naval deployments, peacekeeping missions, anti-piracy operations, and joint exercises.

The PLA’s anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden, which began in 2008, forced China to develop the ability to rotate crews, deliver supplies, maintain equipment, and sustain operations thousands of kilometers from home. In 2017, Beijing opened its first overseas military support base in Djibouti, providing a permanent logistics hub near one of the world’s key maritime routes.

More recently, Chinese naval deployments have included Type 054A frigates, Type 039A/041 submarines, and supporting vessels operating as increasingly sophisticated task groups. Analysts describe this broader process as part of China’s effort to develop and refine its “expeditionary capabilities” far from home.

The latest Egyptian exercise shows how this approach is expanding into the air domain as well. Training against Rafales gives Chinese pilots exposure to a Western-designed fighter while allowing Beijing to deepen military cooperation with one of Africa’s most capable armed forces.

🗣At the same time, African countries are not simply passive participants in this process because they try to “engage with China for their own security, training, and diplomatic reasons,” experts say.

China’s expanding military role in Africa now serves several interconnected purposes:

🔴 Testing long-range logistics and expeditionary capabilities

🔴 Expanding defense partnerships with African states

🔴 Protecting Chinese investments, citizens, and maritime routes

🔴 Building experience for military operations far from home

For China, Africa is becoming a place where partnerships translate into real-world military experience.

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🚨 Watch leader of world’s largest Muslim-majority country chant ‘free Palestine’
 
Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto used the opening of a local Islamic school to make clear where he stands on the Israel-Palestine conflict, raising his fist and chanting “Free Palestine!” several times during his speech, with the audience chanting long and clapping in approval.

🗣“I remember our brothers and sisters in Palestine. They are being slaughtered, bombed and attacked continuously, and we seem powerless to help them,” Prabowo lamented.

🔊

“If we are strong, we can help our brothers and sisters who are oppressed by another regime.”

Indonesia’s support for Palestine is underreported in Western media, but rivals and even surpasses that of many Arab countries. Indonesia refuses to recognize Israel, champions Palestinian statehood at the UN and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and has provided tens of millions of dollars and thousands of tons of humanitarian aid to Gaza since 2023.

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🇾🇪⚔️🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia Tried to Break Ansar Allah But Made It Stronger

Saudi Arabia entered Yemen in 2015 expecting its air force, money and local proxies to drive Ansar Allah from Sanaa. Eleven years later, the movement still holds the capital, has expanded along the Red Sea coast and is pushing Riyadh’s allies farther south.

Five Saudi-backed formations defending western Yemen shared a payroll and biometric identification system. They did not share integrated training, unified command or a joint operations room. When government forces withdrew from Hays, the front unraveled and Mocha was lost soon afterward.

The retreat exposed what years of Saudi patronage had produced: competing armed factions dependent on the same foreign sponsor but unable to operate as one army. Riyadh paid for manpower and weapons without creating a force capable of holding the territory.

Ansar Allah now controls much of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including Mocha, Dhubab and Mayyun Island near Bab al-Mandab. It is also pressing toward Marib, the Saudi-backed government’s last major northern stronghold and the center of important oil and gas production.

Losing Marib would deprive Riyadh’s allies of their remaining population and revenue base in the north. It would also give Ansar Allah a stronger position from which to pressure Shabwa and Hadhramawt and dictate the terms of any future settlement.

Saudi Arabia’s energy routes are becoming vulnerable at the same time. Drones launched from Iraq disabled the East-West pipeline, which carries oil to the Red Sea while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Ansar Allah also struck the Khamis Mushait airbase in southern Saudi Arabia.

Riyadh built that pipeline to escape dependence on one chokepoint. It now terminates beside another increasingly shaped by Yemen. Pressure around Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab and Saudi territory itself leaves the kingdom with fewer safe routes for projecting power or exporting oil.

Washington has provided intelligence and targeting support but has not opened another war to rescue the Saudi project. Turkey and Pakistan have also remained outside the fighting despite their defense ties with Riyadh. The kingdom accumulated partners, weapons and proxy formations without securing allies willing or able to reverse its defeat.

Saudi bombing, Israeli leadership strikes and the billion-dollar US Operation Rough Rider all failed to break Ansar Allah. The movement emerged with more territory and greater leverage over Saudi military bases, energy infrastructure and Red Sea shipping.

Riyadh launched its war to dictate Yemen’s political future. Eleven years later, Ansar Allah is setting the military balance and the price of Saudi Arabia’s exit.

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✡️🔯 Ben-Gvir calls Gaza a ‘real-estate arena’ after removal of Palestinians

🗣If Palestinians were removed from Gaza, the territory could become a “beautiful coastal gem” where settlements could be built, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said.

🔊“If we get the Palestinians out of Gaza, that means more lives for us. And then Gaza can become a real estate arena,” Ben-Gvir said.

Ethnic cleansing, but make it a development project...

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🇨🇳🤔 Flub or ploy? F-35 parts diverted to China, feared lost
 
China’s military may have gotten its hands on top-secret F-35 parts after a trans-oceanic shipment from Australia to the US somehow wound up in Hong Kong instead.

The sensitive shipment reportedly consisted of unserviceable F-35 parts heading to one of Lockheed Martin’s subcontractors for repairs and refurbishment. The jet’s stealth cockpit canopy was the only component mentioned by name in reports.

Even if it’s broken or damaged, dissecting the canopy would enable Chinese defense engineers to find out the exact composition of the chemical coatings used in the canopy’s manufacture to improve the jet’s radar absorption capabilities.

But if China has intercepted the parts, its engineers should be weary. More than a decade since their adoption into the US military, F-35s continue to have an abysmal mission readiness rate as low as 25%.

On top of that, the congressional Government Accountability Office projects that the US will spend over $2.1T – the equivalent of over six annual Chinese defense budgets combined, on the F-35 program.

Besides, China’s indigenous next-gen jet programs are already flying circles around their US counterparts in range, speed, payload size and missile reach, and closing the gap on stealth and low-observability performance metrics.

Maybe the ‘lost’ F-35 parts were deliberately diverted to Hong Kong to get China to spend themselves into bankruptcy trying to replicate a terrible American design. Nice try, Pentagon Petey! 😏

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🔍👁 Handala reveals new cyber campaign against Israel-linked security figures

The mobile phones of hundreds of people connected to Israel’s security structures were infiltrated by the Iran-aligned hacker group Handala, which claimed to have obtained images from their front-facing cameras.

The group described the operation as a large-scale cyber infiltration carried out with its “Na’em” cyber tool, saying the disclosed material represents only a small part of its wider capabilities.

Handala also claimed that previous operations were conducted without public announcements and warned that cybersecurity systems promoted by Washington and Tel Aviv could not be fully relied upon.

The latest Handala disclosure follows a series of high-profile cyber operations linked to Iran-aligned groups, including attacks targeting US and Israeli-linked organizations.

Previous incidents have included attempts to disrupt critical infrastructure, compromise corporate networks, Handala reveals new cyber campaign against Israel-linked security figures.

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🇮🇱🇸🇦🇺🇸 Israel to demand ‘compensation’ for US F-35 sale to Saudis: Wait, how does that work?

Tel Aviv is reportedly feeling a bit kvetchy over the Pentagon’s plans to sell $24B worth of F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia, and intends to demand “compensation” from Washington.

Although the deal has yet to be greenlit by Congress, and the Saudis aren’t expected to get their jets for at least another five years even if it’s approved, a source told Israeli media Israel is already drawing up a list of goodies it wants as recompence.

JPost says Israel could demand “participation in the development and production of classified weapons systems,” including “space-based weapons,” plus more US involvement in Israeli missile interceptor programs, the sale of bunker buster and advanced drone swarm weaponry, or even new US aid in financing the purchase of additional F-15 and F-35 squadrons.

The 19fortyfive defense news website suspects “compensation” could even take the form of Boeing’s sixth-gen F-47 fighter (which at this point remains little more than a PowerPoint presentation).

It’s unclear whether the Saudis will even get their $506M apiece jets (5x the price the US military pays). The last time the US promised F-35s to a Gulf nation, the UAE, as a sweetener to join the Abraham Accords, the talks ended up petering out.
 
Also, let’s get this straight: the US, ostensibly a sovereign nation, sells its defense hardware to another country, and a third country can just come in and demand free stuff?

Yep, it’s exactly how it works. US lawmakers codified the concept of Israel’s ‘qualitative military edge’ into law in 2008. The law demands that however many hundreds of billions of dollars the Arab oil sheikdoms pour into the US economy and its MIC, Israel, which gets many of its US weapons for free, always takes first priority.

As for the Saudis’ F-35s, who knows, maybe five years from now they won’t need them, with the House of Saud toppled and replaced with a Houthi-aligned revolutionary state calling itself the United Arab Republic of Arabia.

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