🇦🇪🇮🇷 Gulf power dynamics make Iran key strategic player & leave UAE out

The United Arab Emirates risks becoming an outlier after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on ending the Gulf crisis, Responsible Statecraft reports.

🔴 The UAE hoped the US–Iran standoff would continue, further weakening the Islamic Republic before any ceasefire took hold, according to RS

🔴 Emirati frustration with the settlement process and Pakistan’s role as a broker led to tensions, including the mass expulsion of Pakistani workers and the detention and deportation of several Pakistani Shiites, the New York Times reports

🔴 The UAE was reportedly struck by more than 3,000 Iranian drones and missiles while, according to the Wall Street Journal, acting as a secret “active combatant” and a “third member” of the US–Israeli coalition

🔴 Israel even deployed Iron Dome systems and dozens of personnel to the UAE during the conflict

🔴 The UAE, which in 2020 became the first Arab state in 26 years to normalize ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords, also set up a joint fund with Israel to develop and acquire new weapons systems, Middle East Eye notes

🔴 The UAE’s rapprochement with Israel has fueled irritation among Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, amid broader regional rivalries over Sudan, Yemen, and Red Sea influence

Hexagon Alliance vs Sunni Diamond

🔴 Two blocs have effectively emerged, spanning North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, named the “Hexagon Alliance” (also known as the Abraham Accords Axis):

🇦🇪 the UAE

🇮🇱 Israel

and the Sunni Diamond (aka the "Islamic NATO"):

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia

🇵🇰 Pakistan

🇹🇷 Turkey

🇶🇦 Qatar

🇪🇬 Egypt

🔴 Despite its small size, the Hexagon Alliance has so far enjoyed strong US and British support, observers note. The Istituto Analisi Relazioni Internazionali (IARI), an Italian think tank, suggests the bloc could expand into the core of a wider network with significant financial strength and emerging AI and technology capabilities

🔴 The Sunni Diamond, meanwhile, consists of regional players with certain strengths:

➡️Saudi Arabia: financial, religious, and energy influence

➡️Pakistan: military depth and nuclear capability

➡️Turkey: defense industry growth and strategic autonomy

➡️Egypt: control of the Suez Canal, large population, and historical Arab leadership

➡️Qatar: energy wealth (LNG), global financial influence

Iran as a key third force in the regional balance

🔴 The Iran war has exposed limits in US and Israeli military capabilities, as well as vulnerabilities in AI infrastructure and data centers due to their reliance on electricity, water, and subsea cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside the fragility of the UAE’s role as a global financial hub

🔴 While some Western think tanks frame Iran as a potential adversary of both blocs, regional dynamics are more complex, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman reportedly seeking a durable peace pact with the Islamic Republic

🔴 For Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia, a potential rapprochement with Iran could secure greater strategic autonomy and reduce Western interference including via Israel, the UAE or other players

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