🚨Gulf power shift looms—defying Trump’s vision and leaving Netanyahu’s Greater Israel in tatters

📌 There is no unity among the Gulf monarchies, and ongoing power dynamics suggest a broader transformation of the regional order.

Saudi-UAE rivalry

🇾🇪⚔️ Yemeni civil war

➡️ Saudi Arabia and the UAE formed a coalition against Ansar Allah in 2015, but the UAE scaled back its role in 2019

➡️ Riyadh supports the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, while the UAE backs the rival Southern Transitional Council

➡️ The UAE has sought greater influence along the Red Sea coast, clashing with Saudi security priorities

🇸🇩⚔️ Sudanese civil war

➡️ Saudi Arabia supports the Sudanese Armed Forces, while the UAE backs the Rapid Support Forces

➡️ The UAE is expanding its footprint in the Horn of Africa, including Somaliland and Ethiopia

➡️ Saudi Arabia has coordinated more closely with Turkey on Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia to counterbalance Emirati influence

🇮🇱 Israel

➡️ The UAE was the first to sign the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel in 2020

➡️ Saudis call the UAE Israel’s “Trojan horse” in the region

⚡️ Personal enmity?

➡️ Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed (MBZ) have experienced a breakdown in relations over the past few years, reports say

➡️ US sex offender Jeffrey Epstein even considered Jamal Khashoggi’s murder an MBZ plot

Qatar: the Gulf’s black sheep?

🔴 During the 2017–2021 Qatar crisis, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt imposed a full diplomatic and economic blockade on Doha; Oman and Kuwait stayed neutral

🔴 The rift was driven by Qatar’s support for Islamist networks, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, seen by Gulf monarchies as a threat to stability

🔴 Turkey, another Muslim Brotherhood supporter, backs Qatar, which is seen as a conduit and enabler of Ankara’s influence in the region

Intense competition for leadership in the region

🔴 Main contenders:

🇹🇷 Turkey, the heir to the Ottoman Islamic Caliphate

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, the custodian of Mecca and Medina

🇮🇱 Israel, a Western colonial outpost

🇮🇷 Iran, a state-civilization and Shiite theocracy

How could the region transform?

🌏 In the 1960s–1970s, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar were relatively weak, surrounded by stronger regional powers such as Egypt, Iraq, Iran, and Syria

🌏 Later wars—including the Iran–Iraq War, US/NATO interventions, and the 2011 Arab Spring—reshaped the balance, conveniently boosting US-backed players: Israel and the Gulf monarchies

🌏 The Iran war suggests a new twist: US regional bases are destroyed, Israel faces mounting security and economic pressure, and Gulf economies are on the edge of crisis

🌏 Iran has proposed a Gulf security framework excluding Western powers, with reported Saudi support and Omani backing for its Strait of Hormuz initiative

🌏 This points to a possible emerging balance centered on Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, with diminished roles for Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and Israel; Turkey is unlikely to dominate Gulf affairs, leaving Qatar’s position uncertain.

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