chasetrust global on Telegram: “😎 From bakery to feedlot 😎 -23% YEAR OVER YEAR…”

😎 From bakery to feedlot 😎

-23% YEAR OVER YEAR

USDA: US wheat harvest 1.53B bu (41.7 MMT), -23% y/y.

• HRW 463M bu (12.6 MMT) -42% y/y
• HRS 434M bu (11.8 MMT) -5%
• SW 263M bu (7.2 MMT) +2%
• Durum 66.4M bu (1.8 MMT) -23%

The shortfall is concentrated exactly where bread flour gets milled.

FEED

Wheat/corn 7.54/4.59 = 1.64
**Back to where the season started, and the premium keeps widening even on the corn rally.

Gulf HRW 12 = $332/MT vs feed parity $192
Spread $140 (73%), was $102 (53%)

HARVEST

HRW: 90%+ harvested / grade firmed up to 1 HRW

• protein 12.5%
• TW 60.2 lb/bu (79.2 kg/hl)
• moisture 11.2%
• TKW 28.7g / FN 356

FLOUR:

• extraction 71.2%
• wet gluten 28.4%
• absorption 59.2%
• stability 14.9 min
• loaf 859 cc

• The south of the HRW belt is in severe to extreme drought / exceptional in places.
• Fall planting is in question - that's already a 2027/28 story.

SW: winter 68% / spring 28%

Protein 9.0% (range 6.7-14.0) / FN 292, 1 SW
Northern Idaho is doing 150-200 bu/ac - hence the low protein.

HRS: 24% harvested, G/E 51%.
SD protein 15-16% with yields above expectations, MN 50-70 bu/ac, MT holding.
Weather on the Northern Plains is turning - rains and normal temperatures.

Durum:

• MT 15%
• ND 12%
• G/E ND 47%
• MT 28%

-23% is a direct hit to pasta / couscous / semolina.

FUTURES (SEP U26)

• KCBT HRW $7.5425 (+$0.40)
• CBOT SRW $6.7475 (+$0.35)
• MIAX HRS $6.7825 (-$0.01)
• Corn $4.59 (+$0.20)

• MAY K27: HRW $7.825 / SRW $7.1175 / HRS $7.3425
JUL N27 below the Mays in HRW and SRW. Contango = still no turn

FOB / YEAR OVER YEAR

Gulf HRW 12: $332/MT (was $234, +42%)
Gulf SRW: $281 ($223, +26%)
Gulf HRS 14: $317 ($272, +17%)
PNW HRW 12: $329 ($240, +37%)
PNW SW: $254 ($241, +5%)
N. Durum Gulf: $300

Russian export duty:

Wheat 19-25.08: 721.1 RUB/MT (+120.79%)
Corn 284 (+170.48%)

Germany cut to 20.6 MMT (-11.2%)
France + the July EU cut (soft wheat 124.4 MMT / exports 29.0 / ending stocks 12.9)

PHYSICAL

US Gulf HRW 11: $329-339/MT
Romania 12.5: $270-275
France: $271-274
Argentina 12.0: $240-245
Russia 12.5: $220-225

The US is carrying $105-115/MT over the Black Sea (was $60-100).
The gap is growing, but there's physically less Black Sea material.

FREIGHT

BDI 2863 (-226 / -7.3% on the week)
Panamax earnings $20,055/day (-3%)

Gulf:

Egypt $44 (+2)
Turkey $45 (+2)
Algeria-Tunisia $45 (+2)
Morocco $44 (+2)
Nigeria $52 (+2)
China $71
Japan $73-75

SPREAD:

• Egypt $45 / $28.
• Morocco $59 / $29.
• Tunisia-Algeria $58 / $28

Hormuz has stopped fertilizer flows into East and South Africa ahead of planting.
It will show up in early-2027 yields.

CURRENCIES (y/y)

JPY 159.3 (+8.29%)
EUR 0.864 (+1.23%)
EGP 50.25 (+4.13%)
RUB 84.25 (+5.16%)
BRL 5.217 (-3.31%)
AUD 1.412 (-8.03%)

• The dollar weakened after the July retail sales miss (-0.6%)
• EGP down 4% on the year with wheat +42% in $$$ (Baladi subsidy)

BUYING

Net sales (as of 06.08): 255,931 MT
Outstanding 7.47 MMT = 35% of USDA's 21.1 MMT (was 33%)

• Export demand for Black Sea hasn't woken up yet. Once it does, basis goes up - on top of futures that have already rallied.

BOTTOM LINE

Harvest: -23%
HRW -42%.

You can't plug a hole in tonnage with quality.
Novorossiysk is down, Germany and France are cut.
Feed has gone 73% above parity, everything went into the mill.

November CPI remains the point where this shows up on the receipt.

😎😎😎😎