😎 From bakery to feedlot and a summit without bread 😎

GRANARY

HRS: harvested ND 95 / MT 95

374 samples = 83% of the survey:

protein 14.7% / FN 417
DHV 75% = 1 DNS (2025: 1 NS / DHV 62)
TW 60.2 vs 61.5 5Y avg
TKW 29.9 vs 31.5

***60 samples still in the lab, final numbers in a week
**Class went up, but the weight didn't come back

Durum: ND 87 / MT 95

86 samples = 64% of the survey:

1 HAD (2025: 2 HAD)

• protein 14.7 (14.9 a week earlier / 5Y 14.2)
• TKW 35.7 vs 42.9 a year earlier
• TW 60.4 vs 61.3 5Y avg
• HVAC 80 vs 86 5Y avg
• FN 402, dockage 1.7

**The grade held up. Kernels are small / color is rain-damaged

Winter wheat finals:

HRW: 1 HRW, protein 12.3, FN 355, TKW 29.3
SRW: 2 SRW, protein 10.0, FN 305
SW: 1 SW, protein 9.1 / FN 288 vs 332 5Y avg

**SW FN is below 300, read the spec before you sign

New season: 2027/28 winter wheat 20% planted, 5% emerged

KS / OK / TX dry / +5-10°F above normal

TICKER

• Dec SRW 7.0325 (-0.1100)
• Dec KCBT HRW 7.6200 (-0.2175)
• Dec MIAX HRS 7.1350 (-0.2775)Corn Dec 5.2825 (+0.0075) / Beans Nov 13.19 (+0.15)

• KCBT curve: Dec 7.62 - May 7.7825, then Jul 7.745 / Sep 7.7725
• MIAX: Dec 7.135 - Jul 7.495 - Sep 7.4125
• CBOT SRW: Dec 7.0325 - Sep 7.3075

**KC over Minneapolis by ~49¢. HRW priced above HRS
**Only SRW holds a carry across the whole curve

Trump-Xi summit: ag deals were expected, nothing delivered so far. They'll probably start hyping it today.

US exports: 267.5 KT for the week ending 17.09
Commitments 9.37 MMT = 44% of the USDA forecast of 21.1

DAMPER

Russia zeroed the export duty on wheat / barley / corn through 31.12.2026, retroactive from 1.09

***Reports are still quoting the 30.09-06.10 calculation: wheat 640.3 rub / corn 220.6. There's nothing to collect.

Delivered Egypt (FOB + freight):

• Russia 12.5: 210 + 90 = ~300
• Ukraine 11.5: 220 + 28 = ~248
• Romania 12.5: 285 + 23 = ~308
• France: 278 + 35 = ~313

• US SRW: 293 + 45 = ~338
• US HRW 11: 339 + 45 = ~384

**The zero duty saves $8-14/t. The risk premium in freight is $62.
*The math doesn't add up at all.

Russia and Turkey are discussing a corridor, while ships are being hit by both sides.
France is loading its first vessel to Yemen since 2022 / the EU is picking up Egypt and Sudan.

**Demand has moved to whoever isn't being shot at

FAIRWAY

US Gulf:

• Egypt 45
• Turkey 46
• Japan 76 (-1)
• China 75 (-1)
• PNW: China 36 / Japan 38

Duluth: Europe 63 (+5) / Morocco 69 (+5)

• BDI 3426 (+56)
• Capesize 5784 (+16)
• Panamax 2407 (+156)
• FBX container 3367 (-79)
• Panamax ~$21.7k/day, +7% w/w.

USW grain freight index 520.5, third week on a plateau (early September 486.9).

**The Lakes get pricier toward the end of the shipping season.
*Bulkers are firming, containers are running into the shallows.

BERTH

FOB Oct-Dec:

• HRW 11 pro Gulf 339-341
• SRW Gulf 293-304
• France 278/281 spot
• Romania 12.5 285-290
• Argentina 12.0 260 to 250
• Ukraine 11.5 220-225
• Russia 12.5 210-215

• US/RU spread ~129

Nearby $/bu:

• Gulf HRW Ord 9.12 (-0.12)
• Gulf HRS 13.0 8.84 (-0.23)
• Gulf SRW 7.98 (-0.16)
• PNW SW 7.30 (-0.10)

Basis: Gulf HRW / HRS firmer

SRW weaker
PNW softer

**Gulf HRW +$109/t vs last year (+47%)

The dollar pulled back on cheap oil, but it's up for a second week: the market is pricing in more Fed hikes.

• EUR 0.877
• JPY 157.2
• RUB 84.15
• EGP 51.75
• BRL 5.185
• CAD 1.414

TROUGH

Soybean meal +$14-20/t w/w: crushers are short of spot beans.

meal NOLA 460-455 / Brazil 425-410
soybeans NOLA 525-535
corn NOLA 245-250 / Brazil 235-245 / Ukraine 225-235

Fishmeal: southern Peru has landed 4.5 KT of its 251K quota

Next center/north quota ~500 KT
Water stays record-warm through March 2027.
Peru FOB 65% 2600/2650

Meal was the only thing that rose this week.

😎😎😎😎