😎 Beneath the Index 😎

Over the past six months, equities and bitcoin have led the basket while gold has lagged.

The latter is easy enough to explain: with 10-year real (TIPS) yields close to 2.8%, gold has gone back to trading largely as a function of real rates.

• What we find harder to reconcile is credit.

The S&P 500 is still within roughly 1% of its august high, yet high-yield has already moved lower, and around three-quarters of the index's constituents declined in September.

Historically, divergences of this sort have not lasted long, and the way they have tended to close is worth keeping in mind.

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