chasetrust global on Telegram: “😎 From bakery to feedlot 😎 FUNDS EXIT INTO THE…”

😎 From bakery to feedlot 😎

FUNDS EXIT INTO THE DOLLAR / RUSSIAN DUTY KEEPS FALLING

SIEVE

HRW final: 1 HRW (580 samples / plan 550)

• protein 12.3% (2025: 12.1 / 5Y: 12.3)
• TW 60.4 lb/bu (79.4 kg/hl)
• TKW 29.3g vs 30.7 5Y
• FN 355 (2025: 370 / 5Y: 362)

**Kernels smaller than normal, everything else flat
*Flour - waiting for the Crop Quality Report

HRS: harvested ND 92 / MT 88
SD 100 / MN 98

374 samples = 83% of the sample set:

• protein 14.7% / FN 417
• DHV 75% = 1 DNS (a week earlier 1 NS)
• TW 60.2 vs 61.5 5Y
• TKW 29.9 vs 31.5

2025 final was 14.4% / DHV 62

***Samples up from 260 to 374 in a week.
**Grade improved on vitreousness, test weight below 5Y

SW final: 1 SW

• 386 samples / plan 390
• protein 9.1% (2025: 10.0 / 5Y: 10.2)
• FN 288 (2025: 317 / 5Y: 332)
• TW 60.9

SRW final: 2 SRW, protein 10.0 (2025: 9.3 / 5Y: 9.5)

• FN 305 / TW 59.9
• defects 1.5 vs 2.3

Durum: 82% ND / 90% MT

63 samples = 47% of the sample set:

• 1 HAD (a week earlier 2 HAD)
• protein 14.9 (2025: 14.2 / 5Y: 14.2)
• TKW 35.9 vs 42.9 a year earlier
• TW 60.3 vs 61.7
• HVAC 78 vs 84 / 86 - rains
• FN 400, dockage 1.5

**Grade pulled up on test weight.
*Protein still the best in years, kernel weight and HVAC weak.

BOARD

• Dec SRW 7.1425 (-0.1100)
• Dec KCBT HRW 7.8375 (-0.1475)
• Dec MIAX HRS 7.4125 (-0.0375)
• Corn Dec 5.2750 (-0.0275) / Beans Nov 13.04 (+0.07)

KCBT curve: Dec 7.8375 - May 8.02, then Jul 7.95 / Sep 7.965

MGEX: Dec 7.4125 - Jul 7.7575 - Sep 7.6125

**Funds cutting longs ahead of US-China. HRW hit hardest, HRS holding on Canada.

US exports: 325.9KT for the week
Commitments 9.1 MMT = 43% of USDA forecast 21.1

Canada: wheat -11% y/y, spring 26.5 MMT, durum 6.4 MMT

Russian duty 23-29.09:

wheat 725.7 RUB (-36.69%) at indicative $225.9
corn 158.4 RUB (-74.35%)
barley 0.

**Minus 420 RUB = ~$5/T of room for Russian exporters.

HOLD

Black Sea, Russia / Ukraine:

• Egypt 90 / 28
• Morocco 105 / 29
• Tunisia-Algeria 105 / 28
• China 95 / 56
• Europe 46 / 28
• Turkey 85 / 30

**Risk premium holding. Iran shifting Russian imports to the Caspian.

US Gulf (steady):

Egypt 45
Turkey 46
Japan 77
China 76

PNW China 36 / Japan 38

BDI 3370 (-137)
Capesize 5768 (-312)
Panamax 2251 (-156)
Supramax / Handysize +48

**Grain panamax -6.5% for the week, hasn't reached US rates yet.

CASH

FOB Oct-Dec:

• HRW 11 pro Gulf 343-346
• SRW Gulf 299-310
• France 291/294 spot
• Romania 12.5 285-290
• Argentina 12.0 255-260
• Ukraine 11.5 220-225
• Russia 12.5 210-215

US/RU spread ~130

Nearby $/bu:

Gulf HRW Ord 9.24 (-0.15)
Gulf HRS 13.0 9.06 (+0.06)
Gulf SRW 8.14 (-0.16)
PNW SW 7.40 (-0.15)

Northern durum Texas Gulf Oct 8.57 ($315/MT)

Dollar strengthened on the Fed rate hike, DXY at a 6-week high (+1.4%).

EUR 0.871
JPY 156.9
RUB 84.19
EGP 52.10
BRL 5.141
CAD 1.398

😎😎😎😎