😎 From bakery to feedlot 😎

ONCE AGAIN, FREIGHT MATTERS MORE THAN THE LAB

SIEVE

HRW closed: 1 HRW (580 samples / 550 expected)

• protein 12.3% (2025: 12.1 / 5Y: 12.3)
• TW 60.4 lb/bu (79.4 kg/hl)
• TKW 29.3g vs 30.7 on the 5Y (smaller kernel)
• FN 355 (2025: 370 / 5Y: 362)
• SKCS 60.4, large fraction 66%

flour (58 composites):

• extraction 71.2% = MLU 202 mill ≠ crop
• absorption 58.9%
• dev 6.1 min / stability 13.7 min
• loaf 865 cc (target 850)

**Good dough quality, but the kernel is small.

HRS: harvested ND 86 / MT 75
SD-MN-PNW effectively closed

260 samples = 58% of the sampling target:

• protein 14.7% / FN 416
• DHV 73% = 1 NS
• TW 60.3 vs 61.5 on the 5Y
• TKW 30.0 vs 31.5

2025 final was 14.4% / DHV 62.

***Sample count went from 175 to 260 in a week.
**Drought gave the concentrate and took the weight.

SW: harvested ~99%

• 386 samples / 390 expected
• protein 9.0%, range 6.4-14.8
• 48% below 9.0 / 34% in 9.0-10.0 / 18% above 10.0
• FN 288 (2025: 317 / 5Y: 332)
• TW 60.9 = 1 SW

SRW final:

2 SRW, protein 10.0 (2025: 9.3 / 5Y: 9.5)

• FN 305
• TW 59.9
• defects 1.5 vs 2.3

Durum: 79% ND / 80% MT

44 samples = 34% of the sampling target:

• 2 HAD (5Y held 1 HAD)
• protein 15.2 (2025: 14.2 / 5Y: 14.2)
• TKW 35.4 vs 42.9 a year ago
• TW 59.9 vs 61.7
• HVAC 79 vs 84 / 86 - rain hitting color and vitreousness
• FN 405, dockage 1.7

**Best protein in years. Everything else is shit quality.

BOARD

• Dec SRW 7.2525 (-0.0875)
• Dec KCBT HRW 7.9850 (-0.0375)
• Dec MIAX HRS 7.4500 (0.0000)
• Corn Dec 5.3025 (-0.0650) / Beans Nov 12.97 (-0.13)

KCBT curve: Dec 7.985 - May 8.165, then Jul 8.06 / Sep 8.05

MGEX: Dec 7.45 - May 7.745 - Sep 7.5825

**Carry only lives out to May for now.

WASDE: world production higher, trade lower.
RU+Ukraine exports cut by a combined 4.0 MMT, offset by Argentina / Australia / Canada.

RU duty 16-22.09:
wheat 1146.3 rub (-2.80%) at an indicative $227.5
corn 617.5 rub (-31.24%)
barley 0.

SovEcon is penciling in -3.2 MMT off RU wheat exports, down to 41.4 MMT. Total grain 49.4 vs 53.8 a month earlier.
Reason: attacks on vessels in the Azov-Black Sea corridor.

HOLD

Black Sea, Russia / Ukraine:

• Egypt 90 / 28
• Morocco 105 / 29
• Tunisia-Algeria 105 / 28
• China 95 / 56
• Europe 46 / 28
• Turkey 85 / 30

**Risk premium 3-4x. Russian 210-215 FOB has stopped being cheap at discharge.

US Gulf:

Egypt 45 (+2)
Turkey 46 (+2)
Japan 77 (+1)
China 76 (+1)

PNW China 36 / Japan 38

BDI 3507 (-121)
Capesize 6080 (-347)
Panamax 2407 (-41)
Supramax (+44)
Handisize (+40)

USW grain freight index 519.7 vs 486.9 a week earlier.

**Capesize is falling, but the grain sizes aren't.

CASH

FOB Oct-Dec:

• HRW 11 pro Gulf 349-352
• SRW Gulf 305-315
• France 285/288 spot
• Romania 12.5 280-285
• Argentina 12.0 255-260
• Ukraine 11.5 220-225
• Russia 12.5 210-215

US/RU spread ~140

Nearby $/bu:

Gulf HRW Ord 9.39 (+0.31)
Gulf HRS 13.0 9.00 (+0.30)
Gulf SRW 8.30 (+0.06)
PNW SW 7.55 (-0.20)

Northern durum Texas Gulf Oct 8.57 ($315/MT)

Dollar firmed on oil + treasury yields and Fed expectations - market pricing ~70% on +25 bp.

EUR 0.862
JPY 153.7
RUB 84.12
EGP 51.33
BRL 5.122
CAD 1.387

😎😎😎😎