😎 The Invisible Monopoly - MAN B&W / Everllence = the heart of global trade 😎

SPOILER: pure exchange-traded exposure to this chokepoint does not exist - the company whose blueprints move ~80% of global trade sat inside the auto giant Volkswagen until 2018 / in the summer of 2026 its control stake (51%) went to the private equity fund Bain Capital for ~€7.4B.

the second player in the duopoly - under the control of the Chinese state.

• MAN B&W (legal entity - Everllence, ex-MAN Energy Solutions) - a "design house," not a factory.

It designs large low-speed two-stroke marine diesel engines and licenses the design to Korean/Chinese/Japanese yards, collecting royalties on every engine built + lifetime service.

MAN B&W holds ~80.9-84.6% of the global low-speed two-stroke market.

MAN B&W BUSINESS MODEL.

they don't build engines - they sell the blueprint and collect the rent.

MAN Energy Solutions (officially Everllence since 4 June 2025) ceased serial production of large two-strokes in Copenhagen back in 1980.

Today the R&D center in Copenhagen designs engines under the MAN B&W brand (now Everllence B&W), while they are physically built by a "family of licensees" predominantly in Asia, PAYING ROYALTIES ON EVERY ENGINE.

MARKET SHARE.

• 80.9-84.6%

by number of installations - MAN 84.6% / WinGD 8.8% / Mitsubishi-UE 3.8%
by market share - MAN 80.9% / WinGD 15.3% / UE 3.8%

• MAN B&W "holds over an 80% worldwide share of marine low-speed engines".

WinGD has been eating into the share in recent years - especially in gas carriers (LNG) and methanol container ships
in the Chinese mid-bore segment WinGD claims growth from ~4% to ~20% in a year

WinGD = China, phased buyout.

the Wärtsilä/CSSC JV began operations on 19 January 2015 (CSSC 70% / Wärtsilä 30%)
in 2016 Wärtsilä exited completely - 100% to CSSC.

MAN B&W OWNERSHIP.

• Until 2018 - part of MAN SE.
• In 2018 VW bought out the business for ~€1.7B.
• 4 June 2025 - rebranding to Everllence.
• 24 June 2026 VW announced the sale of 51% to the Bain Capital fund for ~€7.4B (LBO) / retaining 49%.

THE FUEL TRANSITION = LEVERAGE

essentially, whoever sets the standard for the engine of the future (methanol/ammonia/LNG) locks in the royalty stream from the entire new fleet 20-30 years ahead.

Why the two-stroke = monopoly

The large merchant fleet = container ships / tankers / bulkers / gas carriers - is driven by low-speed two-stroke crosshead diesels.

They are connected directly to the propeller shaft, without a gearbox, turn at 60-230 rpm, burn heavy fuel oil, serve 20-30 years and are the most efficient prime mover for ocean crossings.

Only a handful in the world know how to design such a unit (as tall as a 4-story building, with output up to ~82,440 kW) / building one is already far easier.

Hence the division of labor: the designer takes the IP rent / the yards compete for low-margin "assembly."

THE DUOPOLY AND WHAT DO THE CHINESE HAVE TO DO WITH IT?

WinGD (Winterthur Gas & Diesel / Winterthur / Switzerland) - the direct heir of Sulzer (engines since 1898).

• Wärtsilä bought Sulzer in 1997
• in 2014-2015 it created a JV with CSSC (70/30), and in 2016
• exited completely - 100% to CSSC.

China controls 1/2 of the world's developers of the fleet's "heart" + is simultaneously the planet's largest shipbuilder.

In August 2025 - January 2026 CSSC absorbed its longtime rival CSIC (deal ~115.2B yuan / ~$16B), creating a giant with assets of ~400B yuan (~$56B), ~17-21% of global orders and control over 62% of the global orderbook + 80% of orders for new container ships.

WHY IS THIS CRITICAL?

More than 80% of the volume of world merchandise trade goes by sea

Practically every large container ship / tanker / bulker / gas carrier in the world is driven by an engine of MAN B&W or WinGD design.

**an annual rent stream tied to the installed base, not to the cycle of new orders.

The logic is simple - the engine of the future = the royalties of the future.

*The winner of the ammonia-methanol race will lock in IP rent from the new fleet for decades.

😎😎😎😎