Threading on the Edge

Analyzed 10k borrowers in Morpho's top markets by debt. The same protocol is serving 3 personas:
- loopers
- liquidity borrowers
- directional leverage traders

most markets are loop-heavy, with the top 5 borrowers accounting for most of the debt

the great unbundling might be coming

https://x.com/0scaronchain/status/2069428261315280903

I hate to rain on everyone’s parade, because I really do believe in tokenizing financial securities on general purpose blockchains. But these stats everyone keeps posting about massive onchain stock volume deserve context.

The *vast* majority of onchain stock volume is coming from a handful of AMM pools with swap fees essentially set to zero. That makes it dirt cheap to trade, despite these pools having <$1mn of liquidity.

Within these pools, 95%+ of the volume is coming from around 10 bots that just flip a small position back and forth again and again

Again, not trying to say onchain equities aren’t a very important development. But any time you see a chart like this for any sort of metric in crypto you should drill down into the data. Almost all crypto stats don’t mean what you think they mean at first glance

https://x.com/0xdoug/status/2069484171735515414

Ngl @valueverse_ai' 30D Holder P/FCF screener is quietly one of the sharpest lenses in DeFi right now.

https://x.com/YashasEdu/status/2069274096421232772

Guys, I just migrated and updated my marketing agencies list.

https://x.com/Eli5defi/status/2069043070738579740

Here's your Crypto Watchlist for the Week:

https://x.com/Flowslikeosmo/status/2068802136499257558

i also like to add these other unconventional projects to this real yield / revenue generating narrative:

$CC
: $60m in the last 30d, rank number 3 behind tether and circle

$CARDS
: $14m in the last 30d, $8.6m gross profit, 85 to 90% buyback floor

$SKY
: $12.7m in the last 30d, ranks the 3rd most protocol that pays its token holders

$ZINC
: $5m in the last 30d, launched recently, revenue 3.5x higher in the last 7 days. gamified private proof of work mining protocol on Solana

$WLFI
: $11m in the last 30d, trump mentioned that they would pay unfreeze Iran's assets in USD1, which would be interesting to see how this would play out

@Polymarket
: $22m in the last 30d, this figure would grow exponentially as the worldcup goes on

$HYPE
: $63m in the last 30d, pays the most to its holders and needless to say, its everyone favourite

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2069118607792173529

I got a few frens↓

https://x.com/stacy_muur/status/2068246978572750923

This couldn’t have been said better.

Many points mentioned but some points here to highlight.

Other than crime, $HYPE is the only asset class that outperforms anything in the crypto market right now.

A one liner here for every business, is that it should be built with being revenue generating from the very start.

Too many business are too focused on an attractive product or tech that no one bothers.

Also, they believed in and did one thing that formed the very hype and also the taboo of this industry: buybacks.

Buybacks have shown to never work, and only in hindsight, it actually works only in bullish markets. @HyperliquidX kept it going even in the bearish markets.

Believe in one thing, stick to it, overachieve, overdeliver.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2067909594698088523

hyperEVM has was never meant to be a general purpose EVM for HYPE defi

hyperEVM was meant to be a general purpose EVM for composing with hypercore

if a smart contract does not use corewriter or read precompiles, it should not be on hyperEVM because hyperEVM is an awful general purpose L1 due to the 3M gas limit

the problem with this is

https://x.com/0xasrequired/status/2067722441107931536

HALF OF ALL BITCOIN IS NOW UNDERWATER

10.5 MILLION $BTC, or over 50% of Bitcoin's supply, is now held at a LOSS, up from just 30% a month ago.

Every major bear market bottom in 2011, 2018, and 2022 came within WEEKS of this level, but only after one final drop of 15% to 26%.

Meanwhile, one year RETURNS after crossing this threshold have ranged from 69% to 359%.

This cluster is up more than $800K in profits trading purely Outcomes on Hyperliquid, using native functions unknown to most people.

Outcome metrics on Hyperliquid are growing day by day, and there is already a market with more than $15M in open interest: the 2026 World Cup Champion.
This increase in demand also comes with huge trading opportunities, and this cluster took advantage of them.

https://x.com/marketsalpha/status/2067623694176784797?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

providing liquidity in a prediction market is the most misread trade in the space.

on screen it looks like market making but in risk and P&L it is the bookmaker's trade.

the LP earns a house edge on ordinary flow, pays adverse selection to informed flow and is forced to carry the irreducible residual to settlement, because a single binary's payoff is not spanned by any liquid hedge.

you don't survive that contract by contract. you price the edge, eat the selection, and underwrite the residual in a broad, imperfectly correlated, well capitalized book.

so the binding constraint on durable depth is loss-absorbing capital reserved against the correlated tail, not spread.

today's bootstrapping playbook is mis-targeted. it scores displayed size and tightness, a spread-capture proxy, instead of capital placed at risk.

it buys depth that is thin and mercenary. gone the moment informed flow arrives.

so the real race was never tighter spreads. it's who can underwrite the tail and still be standing.

that's the prediction market that doesn't thin out the moment it matters.

https://x.com/embrron/status/2067009649946382753

another underappreciated angle for $HYPE is regulation.

so i compared it with the chart of $MU, that also explains why $HYPE is starting to track US equity momentum more closely.

if semis, memory, AI infrastructure, and pre-IPO narratives remain strong, Hyperliquid benefits from the same risk appetite. more attention means more activity. more activity means more fees. more fees strengthen the token narrative.

the CFTC chair mentioning Hyperliquid has effectively pushed perpetual futures and onchain derivatives into the mainstream policy conversation

these products are increasingly being discussed in the same breath as the future structure of US derivatives markets.

the bull case for $HYPE is that it has become one of the cleanest live examples of what a 24/7, onchain, capital-efficient derivatives venue can look like.

the counterargument is that NYSE, CME and other major exchanges can eventually move toward 24/7, 365 trading too. technically, they can. but they have not, because legacy markets are constrained by regulation, settlement rails, intermediaries, clearing, market structure, and institutional habits.

that is the important part.

the US is clearly trying to onshore markets that previously lived offshore. if crypto perps become a regulated product category in the US, the market will start repricing the entire sector.

the immediate risk is competition from regulated venues. but the second-order effect is more interesting: regulatory attention validates the market structure itself.

this is where $HYPE becomes different from most crypto tokens.

its value is tied to exchange activity, revenue, buybacks, attention, and now potentially regulatory narrative:

- its the verticalization of crypto perps, prediction markets, pre-IPO speculation, equity beta, and 24/7 trading infrastructure.
- it is a bet that the future of speculation moves toward faster, global, always-on venues, where users want exposure to crypto, equities, private markets, event contracts, and macro narratives in one place.

the risk is that regulation cuts both ways.

if the CFTC opens the door for US-regulated perps, Hyperliquid gets validation, but it also faces a much more serious competitive landscape from compliant US venues.

whether @HyperliquidX can stay product-wise ahead, even as the regulated world starts copying the market it helped prove

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2067144133890961467

i don’t think the next phase of prediction markets that win will become a place to bet on everything.

that feels too broad and we will have to take into account the context

world cup season is actually a good starting point because sports already has attention, emotion, disagreement and real-time info flow.

that’s where i believe prediction markets make the most sense.

but what caught my attention is the combination of design underneath

- AI-native markets
- productive capital
- onchain settlement
- real-time information pricing

that combination is more interesting than a normal prediction market.

- because the big problem with most prediction markets is capital efficiency
- you take a view, your funds sit there, and you wait for resolution
- that works best for simple speculation, but it at this point, it wont be financilized

so if @InsightXHQ can turn prediction positions into productive capital while using AI agents to help price, route, and react to information faster, then we should see prediction market going well with the InfoFi infrastructure on @Mantle_Official

beyond just betting

Mantle is already pushing into DeFi, AI, yield, and consumer apps.

i think that prediction markets are still early and most frontends are not good enough yet.

but the winning ones will be verticalized, contextual, fast, and embedded where attention already exists.

world cup is a good test.

we're not the endgame yet.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2066906097408262654

CFTC Chair on Hyperliquid:
→ He thinks HL is transforming the US markets with their 24/7 offering
→ Smart contract logic automates a lot of what exchanges have to comply with
→ ADL is an unconventional mechanism, not good or bad
→ Modernizing the rules to bring things onshore

https://x.com/_stevenhl/status/2066521630000685221

so for now, my read is simple:

SEMIS and MEMORY remain the leadership group.
NEOCLOUD still has selective strength, especially $NBIS.
CHINA may be bottoming, but not necessarily leading.
NUCLEAR and POWER probably need broader risk appetite before they work again.

yields are broadly lower across the curve, with the 10Y around 4.47% and the 30Y near 4.96%.

US equities rallied overnight, largely in line with what i had been looking for. the key shift was that the forced selling flows started to taper off, allowing high-beta semis to catch a bid again. names like $NBIS, $ALAB, $MRVL, and $CRDO all participated in the rebound. within memory, $SNDK continued to outperform $MU, which remains an important relative-strength signal.

now let’s talk asia.

$KOSPI is up 7%, while $NIKKEI is up around 3.5%. no major surprise there. KOSPI has effectively become a semi and memory proxy in this cycle. when memory works, KOREA works. the index is no longer trading like a normal domestic equity market. it is now one of the clearest expressions of global AI, memory, and semiconductor risk appetite.

on the other hand, $HSTECH and $BABA have lagged badly this year. with the potential resolution of the IRAN war now looming, i am calling for a bottom in $BABA and $KWEB. this does not mean i expect them to outperform DRAM, semis, or AI infrastructure names. it simply means the relentless downside pressure may finally be ending. the trade here is not “CHINA beats semis.” the trade is “CHINA stops going down.”

looking at US performance overnight, the NEOCLOUD space was led lower by $CRWV, while $NBIS remained relatively unscathed. $NBIS continues to trade with plot armour, and with NASDAQ inclusion now announced, i would expect continued relative strength there.

sectors like nuclear continued to show weak performance. that makes sense. risk appetite is only just starting to come back, and traders are still being selective. in early-stage risk-on rallies, capital usually flows first into the highest-conviction leaders. the lower-priority baskets, like nuclear and power, tend to perform later only when the rally broadens out.

tonight, all eyes are on the $SPCX IPO. i have no dog in that fight, but if anything, i would not be too eager to fade ELON or short SPCX on day one.

good luck.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2065426188999504292

As Anthropic might roll out Mythos tomorrow, I highly recommend you install these security extensions ↓

https://x.com/stacy_muur/status/2064341748281921712?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

pre-market thoughts 10-06-2026

the macro backdrop is not meaningfully different from yesterday.

US yields remain elevated but stable, with the 10Y around 4.53% and the 30Y near 5.01%. for now, the bond market is not sending a fresh shock signal.

that matters because the equity move still looks more flow-driven than fundamentally driven.

√ asia
√ US
√ AI, earnings, IPO
√ gold, bitcoin

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2064611224428675098

https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/pre-market-thoughts-10-06-2026

some big news ahead of the day

Everyone asks me if you can MM profitably on @tread_fi. This guy did $70-80M in volume over 2 weeks—profitably. Team of 5, he's a quant and one of the top market makers on @HyperliquidX. I've been picking his brain for days and been constantly talking with him about how we can educate people to tread profitably.

Here's how he does it.

https://x.com/sportytechworld/status/2064292859847840075?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg