Threading on the Edge

Look at the protocols that have actually scaled.

https://x.com/thelearningpill/status/2063987416932000077

i think the market is underestimating variational.

my original target was $100/point.

after running the comp against lighter’s tge, i think that was too conservative.

i’ve moved my target closer to $185/point and even that may not fully price in what variational is becoming.

the easy comp is $LIT launched at $3b+ fdv with a 25% airdrop.

but the problem with comparing variational to lighter is that variational is not really playing the same game.

- @Lighter_xyz is a perp dex.
- @variational_io is trying to become an onchain global brokerage layer, with perps as only one part of the stack.

that changes the valuation framework.

most perp dexs are fighting for the same crypto-native leverage traders:
- variational’s real edge is its RFQ liquidity model.
- orderbook dexs need native liquidity for every market. every new market creates fragmentation, market maker cost, and incentive spend.
- variational uses an rfq model where liquidity can be routed through aggregated sources across cexs, dexs, and tradfi dealers.

that is why they can list hundreds of markets without needing to bootstrap every orderbook from zero.

this is the part most people are missing.

rwa markets are higher-value assets, with a larger addressable market, wider user base, and potentially better monetization than crypto perps alone.

you get 12% more points boosts and bronze tier with my ref link: https://omni.variational.io/?ref=OMNINOX

i think people are going to overthink the next few months.

keep coming back to the same thought, just stack the one asset

between now and November, the goal is to accumulate as much BTC as possible.

position first, overthink later

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2063635194209603734

DeFi yield trackers worth bookmarking ↓

https://x.com/stacy_muur/status/2063169020917117050

Trump has been dropping hints for months about which US stocks you should buy? The biggest headache for regular folks playing the US stock market is not knowing what to buy.

https://x.com/0xMulight/status/2063072431984771477

10 Narratives worth keeping an eye on
​
Agentic Commerce
Consumer
Decentralized AI
Onchain AI
Onchain Inference
Perps
Privacy
Prediction Markets
RWAs
Robotics

https://x.com/0xJeff/status/2063188343173853433

It's an article suggesting that if you've installed Codex but don't know what to do with it, try making videos to earn some money. The key point is that by attaching these 6 video production Skills uploaded to GitHub to Codex, you can have Codex handle the entire video creation process, from planning to editing. Just pick and install the ones that fit the type of videos you want to make.

https://x.com/realkimchiboy/status/2062780941861609716?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

we are not in a good position to be in crypto right now

i have a couple thoughts after this $ZEC incident:

1) the whole crypto/defi is underestimating the effects of ai as a threat
2) i dont think i can see $ZEC the way as before
3) privacy is not in high demand, its a basic human right but we dont really care much about it

- we inherently fail to realize that privacy can be a feature and at the same time a threat/bug
- in an industry heavily dependent on software, we are in probably one of the most critical turning point like never before with the rise of ai
- we have been given a taste of the damage of exploits done in the first half or 2026 and can expect more ai threats in the next 12 months
- the risk to earn yields in crypto/defi is increasingly inproportionately skewed
- cybersecurity measures will be every more essential
- we will begin to see protocols to invest in proper insurances

regarding the $ZEC exploit, we dont really know if the exploit really went through due to its private-designed pool

but i could supposedly it did because there was an incentive for the exploiter to do so, pump
$ZEC
price coordinating across some of the biggest named kols and then dump it

> hayes made the entire CT as this exit liq for $HYPE
> then dumped his holy trinity bags
> says will release a post on market top
> then dumped his entire stack of $ZEC

previously, he also dumped his hype bag right after his $500 prediction, so i am not surprised at all

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2062921319520620896

Onchain card platforms just set a record $227.6M in May, up from $148.6M in March. It's clear that the hobby is printing those numbers and it's moving onchain faster every month.

And now we've the catalyst and it's the biggest one that exists. Nothing on the planet pulls attention like a World Cup.

1. FIFA projects up to 6B people will engage with 2026
2. Across 104 games and a first-ever 48 teams
3. Around $80B in global impact

https://x.com/YashasEdu/status/2062505305649619179

Community alert: I suggest avoiding Rain Protocol ($8.8B mkt cap; top 15) at all costs. As a prediction market RAIN has few users, minimal product traction, no notable backers, & a team with little track record in our industry.

I traced the RAIN team addresses onchain and the source of funds originate via the Gems hot wallet and CEX deposit addresses that previously moved funds for failed projects like Data Ownership Protocol (DOP) & TOMI at the same time indicating potential overlap between teams:

0xa35e61cb836ae15f2d7d400efb49bda7222b98bc linked to RAIN deployer sent dust on Oct 14, 2025 at 3:31:47 pm UTC to 0xbac1
0xa810e14e2ee46e1e25e56bcf280208b78242d5d1 linked to TOMI team multisig & CEX deposit 0x6a6 sent dust on Oct 14, 2025 at 3:31:11 pm UTC to 0xbac1

0xbac19cb634c34baf7670263ccc74806a2d004fb0 received from 0xf205 in Dec 2025 which received from a DOP multisig
0xa81 transferred to 0x2db0e5d3678ace8db1c400844b2ed9a0af331a66 in Feb 2025 which sent to the same CEX deposit address as DOP deployer 0x366.

RAIN's price appears it is being manipulated onchain with addresses linked to the deployer via Uni V3 LP with spot transfers obfuscated via Gems hot wallet:
0x7c10f934c84a0aefaffd3334463c245a311cc967
0x7706342d38d3fd957c7061ac87a98f21f1cb53aa

RAIN has a DAT named Enlivex (Nasdaq listed) that announced a $212M treasury strategy in November 2025 but has no comps to Kalshi or Polymarket to justify the amount. Defillama reports RAIN TVL at $27.2M on Arbitrum however it's entirely in its own illiquid native token & $1m annual fees.

TOMI, DOP & Sirin Labs all trace back to a highly controversial Israeli founder named Moshe Hogeg, who was detained for fraud in 2021 and later accused by law enforcement of a $290M fraudulent crypto scheme in 2023 as well as facing multiple lawsuits from former business partners and employees.

Gems[.]vip is a sketchy launchpad that has hosted multiple of these projects (RAIN, DOP, etc.) and appears to be launching a presale for Kai Platform soon.

Data Ownership Protocol (DOP) reportedly raised $162M in a 2024 token sale. Kai was recently announced to have acquired it, but it's unclear where those funds went with numerous retail investor complaints on social media.

In recent months I have expressed concern about the growing trend of projects aggressively manipulating the price without any repercussions. I do not advise trading them under any circumstances.

there is a billion dollar opportunity in creating a token standard for prediction market positions that plugs into DeFi liquidity pools and enables lending/borrowing against PM shares

the core problem: PM positions go to zero at resolution so no lender touches them. a standard that wraps positions with risk metadata (probability, time to resolution, volatility) lets lending protocols price binary risk dynamically instead of avoiding it

connect this to the wave of prop firms emerging to fund PM traders

a lot of them will need infrastructure to extend capital against trader portfolios and manage binary resolution risk at scale

that infrastructure doesn't exist yet and the demand side is already forming. the supply side is wide open.

putting this out there for whoever wants to build it

https://x.com/thenarrator/status/2062590390469800125

stronger jobs → Fed has less reason to cut rates / more room to stay hawkish → Treasury yields and DXY can rise

→ gold faces pressure.

→ liquidity conditions tighter → BTC can get pressured.

🚨 The United States has reported an increase in ADP Nonfarm Employment for May, with an addition of 122,000 jobs. This figure surpasses expectations of 118,000 and is an improvement from the previous month's gain of 109,000.

this friend is ngmi

think bigger, i continue to long $HYPE, for some of the few reasons:

- web2 friends and family members are starting to ask me about HL
- a lot more equity investors are going to learn about $HYPE between now and June 4th because of $QNT (the most anticipated Quantum IPO of the year)
- loracle who was has been shorting flipped long
- grayscale $HYPG opens tomorrow
- $HYPE is cheaper than every single traditional exchange on the planet
- buy that dip

it is still one of the few assets that will outperform because it has real usage, fees, and institutional support.

$HYPE is the new money seeing new participants from institutions

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2062040588548272331

* Relative Strength Thread *

Let me explain the spaghetti and how I use it to trade $ALTS.

This chart shows the return of certain alts during the selected period (i.e. from the far left).

For the time period selected, Fartcoin would have given you the best return.

https://x.com/btc_charlie/status/1933498876972962160

A computer science student from the University of Singapore built the largest prediction markets dataset and released it completely for free…

This dataset automatically updates every hour with fresh market data.

Here’s how you can use it for your trading on Polymarket:

This data helps you understand how prediction markets actually behave and how prices typically move.

For example, you can analyze and compare markets within the same category and look for patterns that repeat over time…

Lets imagine, after analyzing this dataset, you discover that most economic markets are less volatile and often have a clear winner right from the beginning - BOOM, now this becomes your own proven working strategy.

This way you can create hundreds of different time tested ideas and strategies based on real historical data.

This dataset: https://archive.pmxt.dev

https://x.com/recogard/status/2059351075690287116

Been following https://t.me/gethypewithme and honestly, it’s one of the more useful channels if you trade with an understanding of the market.

What I like is the analytical approach that he combines with:
- thesis backed trades i.e. + 30% on $NIGHT, 2x on $XLM
- tracking market structure
- watching narratives and trends i.e. Privacy, AI, BNB season
- connecting the dots before the move becomes obvious
- some of his own theses are shaped by the way of how he understands market structure

In this market, information edge matters. The more you understand flows, positioning, and why certain sectors move, the better your decisions become.

Worth following if you want sharper market context, not just noise.

the fastest growing GitHub repos in finance + AI this week:

https://x.com/gusik4ever/status/2060693851598107006

HOW ONE $2,999 NVIDIA BOX MADE ME $22,000 IN A YEAR

https://x.com/w1nklerr/status/2060057563991884060