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Post #4546 618
for anyone building in prediction markets right now:

1/ stop trying to out-polymarket polymarket. build something they can’t or won’t build

2/ ship ugly and fast. 3 weeks with real users beats 6 months perfecting a UI nobody trades on

3/ the bear sentiment is your friend. the teams quitting now are freeing up space for the ones that stay

4/ talk to traders not other founders. the telegram groups where actual PM traders complain about what’s broken is your roadmap

5/ pick one user type and obsess. the platform for everyone is the platform for no one

charge something from day one and see who’s ready to pay (much more important than hundreds or thousands of testnet users)

https://x.com/thenarrator/status/2060580001762754718
X (formerly Twitter) good (@thenarrator) on X for anyone building in prediction markets right now: 1/ stop trying to out-polymarket polymarket. build something they can’t or won’t build 2/ ship ugly and fast. 3 weeks with real users beats 6 months perfecting a UI nobody trades on 3/ the bear sentiment…
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Post #4545 502
.@ethena just sold all of it's $MEGA

for the first time since becoming the dominant liquidity provider on @megaeth and farming the majority of available $MEGA emissions, a wallet linked to @ethena moved it's entire stack of roughly 15m $MEGA ($915k) to @wintermute_t around 8h ago, most likely an OTC deal

could be standard treasury management, but considering the current economics of some of the strategies(mostly unprofitable) they are running on Mega, this looks a lot more like de-risking to me

u still holding anon?

https://x.com/0xNeptun/status/2060432216556191968
X (formerly Twitter) nept 🌊 (@0xNeptun) on X .@ethena just sold all of it's $MEGA for the first time since becoming the dominant liquidity provider on @megaeth and farming the majority of available $MEGA emissions, a wallet linked to @ethen…
Post #4544 436
Some observations from referring 63 founders to
@alliance
, maybe helpful for others:

1. Too many people building prediction markets still, what you think is a novel company is a weekend feature for incumbents who've raised a billion dollars and already have distribution.
2. Too many perp dexes and leveraged trading products still, their "novelty" is usually stacking leverage on already leveraged assets aka cascading catastrophe for users. If you burn the user once, they won't return.
3. Lot of agentic use cases, the low hanging fruit (agentic commerce, agentic coordination/unification) is less exciting personally. But a few novel applications across healthcare, science, gaming stood out to me.
4. Solana and Hyperliquid reign supreme, Base is a close 3rd. No Monad, MegaETH, Ethereum, etc. This is maybe an Alliance alignment issue or a larger preference trend for builders.
5. What many builders believe is unique and new is most likely already being done by another person in my DMs. The immediate opportunities are very obvious and $500K might not be enough to take on Stripe and Ramp, find new avenues where you have an unfair advantage and asymmetric opportunity.
6. Not a lot of "cypherpunk/privacy" builders, I think there's still massive opportunities in resilience, networking, shielding, identity for both crypto and AI use cases that I would've loved to see more of.
7. Manners. A please, thank you, and professionalism in cold messages go a long way.

https://x.com/sxtvik/status/2060431173625540631
X (formerly Twitter) satvik (@sxtvik) on X Some observations from referring 63 founders to @alliance, maybe helpful for others: 1. Too many people building prediction markets still, what you think is a novel company is a weekend feature f…
Post #4543 461
Post #4541 571
I think @Openrouter has one of the most interesting funding/business model here and that should be seriously studied

> raise
> buy gpu
> make more revenue
> collaterize gpu with multiples
> borrow more $
> buy more gpu
> reduce inference costs
> train own models

fundamentally it benefits inference operators like openrouter on 2 fronts:

1) owning compute lowers inference costs and improves margin

2) they act as insurance against open-source supply shocks so if Chinese labs like Qwen, GLM, or DeepSeek close restrict access, inference providers with their own GPUs can move from pure routing into training smaller domain-specific models

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2059671311518208336
X (formerly Twitter) arndxt (@arndxt_xo) on X I think @Openrouter has one of the most interesting funding/business model here and that should be seriously studied > raise > buy gpu > make more revenue > collaterize gpu with multiples > bor…
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Post #4540 566
Bro, this shit is wild!

A Chinese dude on GitHub whipped up a free "money printer" called MoneyPrinterTurbo, with over 13,000 stars, still getting updates 44 minutes ago—it's blowing up.

You toss in a keyword, and it auto-writes scripts, scrapes high-def copyright-free footage, adds subtitles, music, and voiceovers, spitting out a full short video on the spot.

Isn't this the exact full pipeline for raking in $6K to $10K a month on TikTok Shop and faceless YouTube channels? They pay for tools, you get it for free.

1️⃣ Hook up Claude/DeepSeek/GPT—pick your poison
2️⃣ 9:16 vertical or 16:9 horizontal, one-click switch
3️⃣ Batch generate and cherry-pick the best
4️⃣ Runs local, Docker, Colab—all supported

No watermarks, no subscriptions, no limits. What are you waiting for?

Link:

https://x.com/nftcps/status/2059447582230000124?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg
X (formerly Twitter) 鸟哥 | 蓝鸟会🕊️ (@NFTCPS) on X 兄弟们,这事儿离谱了! 一中国老哥在GitHub搞了个免费"印钞机",名字直接叫MoneyPrinterTurbo,13000多星标,44分钟前还在更新,卷得飞起。 你扔个关键词进去,它自动写脚本、扒高清无版权素材、配字幕配音乐配音,一条完整短视频直接吐出来。 这不就是TikTok Shop和YouTube不露脸频道月入六千到一万刀的全套流程吗?人家花钱买工具,你白嫖。 1️⃣ 接…
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Post #4539 562
AN INDIAN DEV JUST KILLED THE ENTIRE "DOCUMENT PARSING API" INDUSTRY.

PDFs. PowerPoints. Word docs. Images. Videos. Audio. Web pages. One repo eats all of it and spits out clean Markdown ready for your RAG pipeline.

It's called OmniParse. Built by Adithya S Kolavi. 6.8K stars. 537 forks. Sitting on GitHub. Free.

Unstructured.io raised $65M to do this. LlamaParse charges per page. AWS Textract bills you by the request. Azure Document Intelligence wants $1.50 per 1,000 pages forever.

https://x.com/sukh_saroy/status/2059523822441939308?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg
X (formerly Twitter) Post This post is from a suspended account.
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Post #4538 508
Post #4537 466
I think this is partially why @OpenRouter just raised $113M+ by @CapitalG

If you are an inference provider you can raise a ton of money now off revenues and amass capital to buy GPUs. You can use these GPUs to offset chinese models going closed source by using them for model training/fine tunes in the future

Inference provider revenues are driven by deploying open source models in an easy and safely accessible way. You can pay 1/100 to 1/1,000 the cost to access GLM/Qwen etc vs centralized APIs and not send your data directly to chinese APIs. Yay I get cheap intelligence and China doesn't see my full conversation history on giving my friend breakup advice.

You leverage that revenue growth (API spend) to buy a capital asset (GPUs) for the future If @alexatallah buys GPUs with this $113M it solves two things. The first is he can lower inference costs even more through owning the hardware (and get a nice multiple on it and take loans against them, and repeat) and second he could use those models for training runs or fine tunes in the future if China goes fully closed source

https://x.com/shaughnessy119/status/2059391793679003987?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg
X (formerly Twitter) Tommy (@Shaughnessy119) on X I think this is partially why @OpenRouter just raised $113M+ by @CapitalG If you are an inference provider you can raise a ton of money now off revenues and amass capital to buy GPUs. You can use these GPUs to offset chinese models going closed source by…
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Post #4536 421
news arb is fully exploited in tradfi but prediction markets have a much lower bar

one second-order effect of pms might be that we'll see way more boutique quant firms as the entry bar lowers

imagine how many college students are building polymarket bots from their dorms rn

https://x.com/iatskar/status/2059330774004805972?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg
X (formerly Twitter) arsenii (@iatskar) on X news arb is fully exploited in tradfi but prediction markets have a much lower bar one second-order effect of pms might be that we'll see way more boutique quant firms as the entry bar lowers imagine how many college students are building polymarket bots…
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Post #4535 504
Introducing: Prediction Market Atlas

What most people see in prediction markets is only the surface.

The categories now shipping include futarchy, distribution markets, multiverse markets, opinion markets, attention markets, decision markets, and info-finance.

Each has its own pricing logic, regulatory lane, and audience. PM Atlas maps that landscape across 108 platforms, 12 mechanisms, and 90 concepts, from industry structure down to the actual products being built.

A way to track who is building what, how these markets differ, and where the next primitives are emerging.

http://pmatlas.xyz

https://x.com/embrron/status/2059372115263094901
PM Atlas PM Atlas · The Prediction Market Dashboard A prediction-market dashboard: 125 platforms across 12 mechanism categories, 90 concepts, mapped and cross-linked.
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Post #4533 562
i am a proponent of privacy very simply because its the counter intuitive thesis to tightening regulations.

$ZEC
has led the privacy season but there are a lot more projects that are building in the privacy space.

S tier:
$ZEC
- the bitcoin for privacy outperformed every asset
$NIL - humanity first blind computer
$NEAR
- one of the strongest architectures for AI Agents right now, agentic payments, low fees, chain abstraction
@Grayscale
onboard

A tier:
$CC
- institutional private chain, huge beneficiary of regulation
$AZTEC - leading privacy-first Layer 2 on Ethereum
$OCTRA - open-sourced the core HFHE implementation with public benchmarks

B tier:
$H
- zk verification of proof of humanity
$STRK
- zk execution Layer scaling Ethereum
$ROSE
- makes any application private and verifiable, no matter where it runs

C tier:
$DUSK
- privacy-preserving blockchain infrastructure for institutional-grade finance

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2058962785518924159

https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/the-privacy-bid
X (formerly Twitter) arndxt (@arndxt_xo) on X i am a proponent of privacy very simply because its the counter intuitive thesis to tightening regulations. $ZEC has led the privacy season but there are a lot more projects that are building in …
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Post #4531 593
A guy named nbatman on Reddit accidentally built the most useful website on the internet.

It's called FMHY (Free Media Heck Yeah).

This is the website Google delisted from search for DMCA violations, Reddit shadow-banned for promoting piracy, the Motion Picture Association flagged as a top piracy threat, and the RIAA pressured hosting providers to drop. It is still online. It is still updated every month.

https://x.com/ihtesham2005/status/2058221813797446075?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg
X (formerly Twitter) Ihtesham Ali (@ihteshamali) on X A guy named nbatman on Reddit accidentally built the most useful website on the internet. It's called FMHY (Free Media Heck Yeah). This is the website Google delisted from search for DMCA violat…
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Post #4529 578
Do something different this weekend.

Become a PRO in AI Model Fine-tuning.

Paste this prompt in Codex/ChatGPT/Claude/Grok.

"You are an expert AI engineer and teacher.

Your job is to teach me modern LLM engineering and fine-tuning concepts from beginner to advanced level using very simple daily-life language.

Teach me step-by-step like a real mentor. Assume I am smart but new to the topic.

https://x.com/cjzafir/status/2058281787743445416?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg
X (formerly Twitter) CJ Zafir (@cjzafir) on X Do something different this weekend. Become a PRO in AI Model Fine-tuning. Paste this prompt in Codex/ChatGPT/Claude/Grok. "You are an expert AI engineer and teacher. Your job is to teach me m…
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