so for now, my read is simple:

SEMIS and MEMORY remain the leadership group.
NEOCLOUD still has selective strength, especially $NBIS.
CHINA may be bottoming, but not necessarily leading.
NUCLEAR and POWER probably need broader risk appetite before they work again.

yields are broadly lower across the curve, with the 10Y around 4.47% and the 30Y near 4.96%.

US equities rallied overnight, largely in line with what i had been looking for. the key shift was that the forced selling flows started to taper off, allowing high-beta semis to catch a bid again. names like $NBIS, $ALAB, $MRVL, and $CRDO all participated in the rebound. within memory, $SNDK continued to outperform $MU, which remains an important relative-strength signal.

now let’s talk asia.

$KOSPI is up 7%, while $NIKKEI is up around 3.5%. no major surprise there. KOSPI has effectively become a semi and memory proxy in this cycle. when memory works, KOREA works. the index is no longer trading like a normal domestic equity market. it is now one of the clearest expressions of global AI, memory, and semiconductor risk appetite.

on the other hand, $HSTECH and $BABA have lagged badly this year. with the potential resolution of the IRAN war now looming, i am calling for a bottom in $BABA and $KWEB. this does not mean i expect them to outperform DRAM, semis, or AI infrastructure names. it simply means the relentless downside pressure may finally be ending. the trade here is not “CHINA beats semis.” the trade is “CHINA stops going down.”

looking at US performance overnight, the NEOCLOUD space was led lower by $CRWV, while $NBIS remained relatively unscathed. $NBIS continues to trade with plot armour, and with NASDAQ inclusion now announced, i would expect continued relative strength there.

sectors like nuclear continued to show weak performance. that makes sense. risk appetite is only just starting to come back, and traders are still being selective. in early-stage risk-on rallies, capital usually flows first into the highest-conviction leaders. the lower-priority baskets, like nuclear and power, tend to perform later only when the rally broadens out.

tonight, all eyes are on the $SPCX IPO. i have no dog in that fight, but if anything, i would not be too eager to fade ELON or short SPCX on day one.

good luck.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2065426188999504292