Bevan: Republicans Will Win The Majority Of Senate Races With A 2-3 Point Polling Shift
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2026/10/16/bevan_republicans_will_win_the_majority_of_senate_races_with_a_2-3_point_polling_shift.html

RealClearPolitics co-founder and president Tom Bevan told Newsmax's "Wake Up America" on Friday that Republicans still have a path to holding the Senate, arguing that polling errors and increased Republican turnout could make the difference.

MARC LOTTER, NEWSMAX'S 'WAKE UP AMERICA' CO-HOST: Joining us now to break down all the latest polls, co-founder and president of Real Clear Politics, Tom Bevan. So Tom, I know it's been all doom and gloom for many of the national media from a Republican standpoint for most of this year, but check out this headline from Real Clear Politics. Don't count the GOP out of the midterms yet.

And as Harry Enten just showed us, it only takes polls to be off by two to four percent for the Republicans to hold the majority in both the House and the Senate. So what say you? Do you think pollsters have finally figured it out? Do they have it right this time around?

TOM BEVAN: You know, I go through this every two years and the answer is, you know, we won't know until all the votes are counted and we can do an analysis. It is true that the polls have underestimated Republican support, particularly in years where Donald Trump is on the ballot, 2016, 2024, even 2020. Midterms have been a bit of a mixed bag.

As you remember, if you look back to 2018, Democrats had a big advantage in the generic congressional ballot, which they do again this year. They won 40 House seats that year, but lost two Senate seats. And so, you know, we have a similar dynamic here. I think most analysts agree the House is in real trouble for Republicans. You know, you see them pulling money out of some of these districts and sort of pouring money into districts that Trump won by five or 10 or even 10 plus points.

But the Senate is a different story. It is very, very close. Republicans are definitely playing defense. But if the polls are underestimating Republicans, or, I mean, look at it this way. Trump is going to all of these red states, right? He's in Texas. He's in Nebraska. He's in Ohio. He's in Alaska. He's in Montana. And he's trying to just activate the MAGA base to turn out. And if there are many more Republicans in all those states, so if Republicans just turn out, they're going to win all those races. And even if Democrats pick up Michigan, Maine, North Carolina, that will not get them a Senate majority. They simply cannot get a majority if Republicans turn out on Election Day.

SHARLA MCBRIDE, 'WAKE UP AMERICA' CO-HOST: Yeah. And Republicans are inching closer to retaking the lead in some key Senate races. RealClearPolitics, as you know, shows Ken Paxton within just a couple points now, Democrat James Tallarico in Texas. Also has Kansas Senator Roger Marshall clinging to a less than one point lead over Democrat Adam Hamilton there. Do you think some of the early polling may have been a bit misleading? And specifically, what do you think about those two races?

BEVAN: Yeah, misleading, I don't know. I mean, you do have a situation where Democrats are much more eager to vote, right? There's an enthusiasm gap and Republicans are kind of dragging their feet a little bit. Oh, maybe I don't like this candidate. I don't like gas prices or whatever. And the question is, are they going to, they're certainly not going to go vote for Democrats.

The question is, are they going to turn out, go to the polls and vote Republican? And so in these earlier polls, you have Democrats answering the phone. Yes, I'm excited to vote. Yes, I'm going to vote for the Democratic candidate. And you have Republicans that are either ignoring pollsters, right, or telling them that, you know, I'm not that enthusiastic. I don't know.